BARBRA SEHLULE MUZATA: How crop modelling shapes the future of agriculture

As the grip of climate change tightens on the planet, disrupting weather patterns and threatening the very foundation of our food systems, a quiet revolution is taking root in the fields. No longer armed solely with traditional methods, scientists are now wielding the power of cutting-edge crop models and climate data to navigate this new agricultural landscape.

These sophisticated digital simulations are more than just research tools; they are unlocking the potential for transformative change. By enabling researchers to assess potential climate effects and develop tailored adaptation strategies, crop modelling is empowering farmers with the knowledge and tools they need to thrive in the face of an ever-changing climate.

Key trends shaping the future of agriculture include:

• Modern crop models are no longer isolated applications. They combine the intricate melodies of remote sensing, machine learning and crop simulation models to paint a more comprehensive picture of agricultural systems. This harmonious fusion has led to the development of practical tools that offer farmers actionable insights for navigating the effects of climate change, such as the El Niño phenomenon. This amalgamation of cutting-edge technologies offers farmers not just data, but a well-composed score for informed decision-making.
• Crop modelling is empowering farmers with timely, climate-smart information. Imagine farmers receiving personalised advisories on planting times, crop choices and management strategies in response to the shifting symphony of weather patterns. This is the transformative promise of crop modelling in agricultural decision-making.
• Crop models are being carefully composed to address specific climate concerns, such as the impact of El Niño on agricultural landscapes. This allows farmers to proactively manage risks and adapt their practices to the changing weather patterns, ultimately increasing their resilience and ensuring better yields.
• The success of crop modelling initiatives hinges heavily on collaboration and partnership. One such example is the collaboration between Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) centres and partners in developing the Growsmart advisory service. This initiative brings together various CGIAR centres and key partners across Southern Africa, highlighting the importance of collective approaches in tackling agricultural challenges.
• Crop modelling is increasingly recognised as crucial for achieving global sustainability goals. By enabling farmers to adapt to climate change and improve their agricultural practices, crop modelling contributes to building resilient food systems.
• A trend towards holistic information dissemination is emerging. Organisations are tailoring their services to the specific needs of farmers and extension agents, using a diverse orchestra of communication channels such as SMS, brochures, and flyers. This approach ensures accessibility and relevance for farmers, particularly in the global south. It goes beyond digital platforms, encompassing tailored messages for various stakeholders, delivered in local languages and through diverse channels, ensuring the information resonates with the audience. The overarching lesson is the importance of empowering farmers with actionable insights. Communication provides the instruments for equipping farmers with practical tools for informed decision-making.
• Crop modelling initiatives are demonstrating a tangible effect on the lives of farmers. The inclusion of real-world experiences highlighting the value of early alerts through SMS underscores the importance of bridging the gap between theoretical advancements and practical, on-the-ground applications to create meaningful change.
• There is a constant need for continued research and development, especially in refining crop models and making them accessible to farmers. The commitment to transitioning from theoretical models to practical, farmer-centric applications is crucial for ensuring the long-term sustainability and effectiveness of agronomy initiatives.

These trends showcase how crop models are transforming the agricultural landscape, as well as the way farmers manage their fields. When well adapted, they can guide farmers in making crucial decisions about resource use efficiency (water and nutrient management), agronomic operations (planting dates, weeding, harvesting), and even anticipating potential pest and disease problems.

Ultimately, these models empower farmers to navigate the challenges of a changing climate and ensure the continued success of our vital food systems.

• Muzata is global communications leader at the CGIAR's Excellence in Agronomy Initiative.