NOMHLE NGWENYA: Severe weather events are becoming a national crisis

The winter season is characterised by plunging temperatures and snow in some parts of the country. Data from the SA Weather Services illustrates that the Western Cape receives most of its rainfall in winter (June to August) while the rest of the country receives rainfall in summer (December to February).

Despite these variations in rainfall, the past couple of days have shown how even provinces that do not typically receive rainfall in winter have been subjected to extreme weather events that have led to prolonged rainfall, which has caused flooding. This has been observed in Northern Cape where severe flooding has led to road closures, as well as KwaZulu-Natal, where disruptive rainfall has caused social havoc, with homes destroyed and lives lost.

The biggest question is: why are there climate anomalies leading to extreme weather events that are changing seasonal patterns? The truth is that climate change is a result of the intense weather conditions we are all experiencing and that this will be our new reality. A Carbon Brief report of 2022 highlighted how extreme weather events such as heatwaves and disruptive rainfall will become a norm for SA as a result of climate change.

The Task Force on Climate-Related Financial Disclosures (TCFD) defines climate-related risks according to two categories. First, risks related to the transition towards a low-carbon economy, which include market and reputational risks, and policy and legal risks. Second, physical risks which result from climate change and can be classified as acute (floods, cyclones) or chronic (sea-level rise or heatwaves).

The increasing frequency and intensity of climate-related physical hazards harbour a new set of dynamic and complex risks for the government and companies. An example of this is the April 2022 catastrophic floods that occurred in KwaZulu-Natal which devastated the region. Data from research done by Naidoo et al (2022), illustrates how these floods were a result of climate-change-induced patterns, with more than 12,000 homes destroyed, more than 300 homes destroyed leading to huge displacement of people, and an estimated $1.6bn in damages to infrastructure.

The social and financial implication of climate-related risks have resulted in two national state of disasters having been implemented by the government during 2022-23. An analysis into the provincial and local government Disaster Management Act, there is a strong understanding of how SA faces increasing levels of disaster risk. It is exposed to a wide range of weather hazards, including drought, cyclones and severe storms that can trigger widespread hardship and devastation.

However, the level of disaster preparedness and reactive approach by the government has been called into question. Some of these pertinent questions relate to what is being done on training and public awareness on extreme weather events as well as partnerships with various stakeholders to mitigate against climate risks? It seems that whenever a climate disaster strikes, all efforts are geared into post-disaster recovery and having to reconstruct and rebuild a cohesive society afterwards.

With the country already embattled with the triple crisis of poverty, unemployment and inequality, post-disaster recovery seems to do the complete opposite and instead further worsens the deep social and economic challenges of SA. Left unmanaged, these climate-related physical risks can lead to reduced resilience and significant financial losses. As infrastructure worth billions of rand continues to be destroyed and with businesses losing profits, climate change has become not only a social risk but also one of the biggest financial risks affecting the national economy.

Apart from factors such as the disruption caused by Transnet’s rail network supply chain and load-shedding, I believe that climate-related risks will start having a bigger effect on the national GDP. The lives, health and wellbeing of our society and economy is at high risk because of climate-related disasters. The floods are a stark reminder of how economic and social damage is beyond our control. However, what is in our control is to ensure an effective response across all spheres of the government to the extreme weather events that have occurred in several parts of the country.

In addition, the co-ordination and management of all spheres of government, municipalities and the private sector is needed to ensure proactive mobilisation of resources and technical expertise to monitor extreme-climate weather events. The sooner this is realised and implemented, the better the country will be in managing climate-related risks and not allowing them to always become disastrous.

• Dr Ngwenya is an independent climate finance researcher.