JOSHUA NOTT: UK would benefit from taking bold bets on Africa

When asked for his views on diversification as a strategy for portfolio management, Warren Buffett responded, “diversification is protection against ignorance”. Instead of a diversified portfolio, the Oracle of Omaha famously prefers a concentrated one, composed of a few sectors he has rigorously studied.

The UK’s investment strategy for the African continent is seemingly straight out of the Buffett playbook. As of 2020, the UK holds $65bn in total foreign direct investment (FDI) stock in Africa, second only to China. The vast majority of the portfolio is in oil, gas, mining and financial services.

In 2022 five new oil and gas deals worth £2.1bn were struck at the UK-Africa summit. In stark contrast, just £161m (8% of the total summit commitments) were invested in clean energy. One may agree with the UK’s strategy, suggesting that there aren’t many other high-yield investments to be made other than in oil majors, legacy miners and grey-haired banks. And besides, who would disagree with Buffett’s dictum? He is the sixth-wealthiest person in the world after all.   

The truth of the matter is that Buffett would not be as wealthy as he is without adapting to changes in market trends, technologies and geopolitics. In May he sold his remaining stake in chip manufacturer TSMC due to geopolitical considerations (TSMC is based in Taiwan). A concentrated portfolio does not mean a stagnant one. It is this insight that the UK is overlooking, setting itself up to miss opportunities in those new industries rapidly taking shape across the world’s youngest and most promising continent.

Two trends are shaping markets across the continent. One of these is the adoption of financial technologies and the other is increased demand for healthcare, a consequence of Africa’s population boom and rising standards of living.

Fintech sector

McKinsey, a consultancy, estimated that revenues in the African fintech sector could surge eight times their current value to $30bn by 2025. Between 2020 and 2021 alone, the number of tech start-ups tripled to 5,200 companies. In 2021, seven of the 10 newly minted African unicorns (private companies valued over $1bn) are fintechs. As more Africans get connected and as digital identification verification models mature, fintechs will scale and profits will follow.

The second sector is pharmaceuticals. As Africa’s population grows and incomes rise, more money will be spent on healthcare. Within this sector, the Covid-19 pandemic laid bare the worrisome state of Africa’s vaccine and therapeutic manufacturing capabilities. Estimates vary, but some assessments forecast vaccine demand to double in volume from about 1-billion doses now to more than 2.7-billion doses by 2040. Industries adjacent to pharmaceuticals such as logistics, packaging and protective equipment are likely to cash in on increased private and public healthcare expenditure.

There are some positive signs that the newly revamped British International Investment (BII), formally the Commonwealth Development Corporation, is adjusting its investments because of these market trends. In 2020, the BII made a $150m investment in Kelix bio, a pan-African pharmaceutical platform focusing on manufacturing and marketing. It also executed a $20m, four-year structured credit deal with Moove, a fintech company that provides customers with cheaper access to vehicles.

Risk premium

These steps are positive but they are small. Inward FDI for Africa remains pitiful. Last year set a record for the continent, bringing in $83bn. To put this in context, the City of London in 2020 hit $831bn in FDI (10 times that of a continent of 54 countries), according to the Office of National Statistics.

What to make of this all? At least two insights. First, the UK should look to new sectors, taking bold bets in companies leading the fintech and pharmaceutical sectors. The second insight is that Africa’s risk premium is overpriced. There is opportunity beyond the industries of the 20th century; one just needs to look for them.

• Nott works for a venture facility for public benefit and is based in London. He writes in his personal capacity. You can follow his writing on Twitter @TheAfricaBrief.