GEORGE ASAMANI: A world of disruption awaits universities

As with all sectors, higher or tertiary education is fair game for disruption. We saw a glimpse in the pandemic, where classes were held online and courses, unbundled from staples such as libraries and cafeterias, was delivered directly to devices. Overnight, technology automated the traditional lecture and logic supports the argument that anything that can be automated will be disrupted. As memories of that tumultuous time fade two years on, remote learning is everything, everywhere, all at once.  

Universities have played a critical historical role in framing national consciousness and identity. They have also played a pivotal role in advancing economies by delivering the skills to drive the industrial revolution that saw countries and companies gain dominance. For decades they met the demands of the era, but their agility has now come under intense scrutiny at a time when profound change is sweeping through society. 

Futurist Adam Alexander introduced the theory of “peak higher education” and based his hypothesis on six straight years of enrolment decline at US universities pre Covid-19. While the theory might not apply so much to SA, partly because university education is still aspirational, enrolments are on the decline elsewhere in the world. Many are questioning the value of the university degree in the face of mounting debt. Collective student debt in the US is estimated at more than $1.7-trillion, surpassing vehicle loans and credit card debt. In SA it has grown to R16.5bn. 

Universities remain the pinnacle of academic achievement, but alternatives are fast emerging for credentials and certification. The chorus of voices that want universities to accelerate the updating their curricula is growing. Leadership skills, critical thinking, problem-solving, communication and tech savviness are emerging as par for the course, but universities have been apathetic towards them.  

In a landscape where a virus or war can fundamentally alter the course of your business, executives are sceptical that universities can deliver the right people with 21st-century skills for the jobs of tomorrow. By some estimates, the pandemic accelerated digital adoption by five years. This “digitalisation at scale and velocity” results in enormous skill shifts. Data from Gartner TalentNeuron shows an outsize number of techies being hired outside of IT. That trend is likely only to accelerate further as organisations demand digital skills far beyond the IT function and deep into other areas of the business. 

This demand has manifested in the fast-growing citizen developer movement. A citizen developer is a non-techie who can create application capabilities without formal software programming or coding experience. According to Gartner, citizen developers at large enterprises will outnumber professional software developers by a factor of 4:1 this year. Citizen development is a micro-credential that anyone can acquire in six to eight hours and requires no formal educational qualifications.  

Another big challenge credentials and certifications address is job readiness. According to the African Center for Economic Transformation, almost 50% of African university graduates don’t get jobs. Economists refer to this as structural unemployment, unemployment caused by a mismatch of skills that workers can offer versus the skills required by industry. While the number of graduates keeps rising, there is consensus among employers that university qualifications translate poorly in the new world of work. Among those who are employed, a large portion end in careers not aligned with their education.  

Credentials and certifications are entering the mainstream because they meet the genuine needs of the industry. Moreover, they offer a more accessible, affordable and accelerated way to demonstrate workforce readiness. They also provide opportunities to retool and recharge resumes to enter other sectors as the skills are transferable, such as project management skills. Moreover, with certifications such as project management professional, one can earn 16% more than a non-project management professional-certified project manager, according to the Earning Power PM Salary Survey by the non-profit Project Management Institute.  

Far-reaching changes in the global economy, spurred by Covid-19 and climate concerns, are transforming the future of work. While universities do their best to deliver talent, they will are likely to play catch up for the foreseeable future rather than set the pace. To close the talent gaps universities must join the revolution by engaging with industry, embedding in-demand skills in curricula, and cultivating learnability among students.  

To quote Kirill Pyshkin, senior portfolio manager at Credit Suisse: “In the future 2020 will likely be regarded as the pivotal point at which the traditional education system began to undergo extensive disruption. This is education’s Netflix moment.”  

Asamani Sub-Saharan Africa MD for the Project Management Institute.