PODCAST | SA’s sociopolitical landscape moving into 2023

The pulse of the SA economy at the start of 2023 is the focus of this edition of Business Day Spotlight.

Host Mudiwa Gavaza is joined by the team from Oxford Economics Africa - Jacques Nel, head of Africa macro research, and Louw Nel, senior political analyst. 

Starting with the political economy, Louw gives an analysis of the recent ANC elective conference, which saw President Cyril Ramaphosa securing another term as leader of SA’s governing party. 

Though 2023 is not election year for SA, Louw says it is the beginning of an election cycle as parties prepare for the polls in 2024. This fact will probably feed into 2023’s policy agenda and the major issues to be addressed, such as load-shedding.

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In the markets, Jacques says uncertainty surrounding the ANC’s leadership fed into the rand’s weakness in recent months. After a tough year for consumers and businesses, he says interest rates are expected to reach their peak through 2023 both locally and internationally. However, strain on consumers is likely to remain, despite a more positive outlook for inflation being on the cards. 

The discussion ends with a look at how peer economies such as Egypt and Nigeria are performing, as well as anticipating some of the geopolitical risks likely to shape 2023. 

Topics of discussion include: the state of the political economy, the effects of inflation and interest rates in the year to come, the performance of regional neighbours and geopolitical risks.