Russia preparing for military conflict with Nato, says Estonia

Vilnius — Russia is preparing for a military confrontation with the West within the next decade and could be deterred by a counter build-up of armed forces, Estonia’s Foreign Intelligence Service said on Tuesday.

A growing number of Western officials have warned of a military threat from Russia to countries along the eastern flank of Nato, calling for Europe to get prepared by rearming.

The chief of the intelligence service, Kaupo Rosin, said the assessment was based on Russian plans to double the number of forces stationed along its border with Nato members Finland and the Baltic States of Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia.

“Russia has chosen a path which is a long-term confrontation ... and the Kremlin is probably anticipating a possible conflict with Nato within the next decade or so,” he told reporters at the release of Estonia’s national security threats report.

A military attack by Russia is “highly unlikely” in the short term, he said, partly because Russia has to keep troops in Ukraine, and would remain unlikely if Russian build-up of forces was matched in Europe.

“If we are not prepared, the likelihood [of a military Russian attack] would be much higher than without any preparation,” Rosin added.

Estonia and the other Baltic States have increased their military spending to more than 2% of the value of their economies after Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, and Nato allies have raised their presence in those countries.

Germany plans to have 4,800 combat-ready troops in the region by 2027, in its first permanent foreign deployment since World War 2, and Rosin said Nato and its allies were moving in the right direction to counter the Russian threat.

Rosin does not expect a Russian breakthrough in Ukraine before its presidential election in March, as it would need to mobilise significantly more troops to achieve that goal.

Speaking about US presidential candidate Donald Trump’s comments that he would not defend allies who don’t spend enough on defence, Rosin said: “Such statements are never helpful”.

Russia’s ability to provide ammunition to its troops is continuing to outweigh Ukraine’s, and unless Western support is sustained or increased, Ukraine is unlikely to be able to change the situation on the battlefield, he added. 

Meanwhile, Russian police have put Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas, Lithuania’s culture minister and members of the previous Latvian parliament on the wanted list, according to the Russian interior ministry’s database.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Kallas was wanted for “desecration of historical memory”.

Russian state agency TASS said the Baltic officials were accused of “destroying monuments to Soviet soldiers”, which is punishable by a five-year prison term under the Russian criminal code.

Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine nearly two years ago, the Baltic nations of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania have demolished most of their Soviet-era monuments, including those commemorating Soviet solders killed in World War 2.

In response, the head of the Russian Investigative Committee, Alexander Bastrykin, ordered a criminal investigation into the matter.

Russian foreign ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said: “This is only the beginning. Crimes against the memory of the world’s liberators from Nazism and fascism must be prosecuted.” 

The Baltic politicians risk being placed under arrest only if they cross the Russian border, otherwise declaring them as “wanted” is unlikely to have any practical consequence

Reuters