KHAYA SITHOLE: Ramaphosa faces a sterner test after Brics euphoria

In recent weeks President Cyril Ramaphosa has shown glimpses of what can be done when he takes the plunge to lead with a sense of conviction. His main headaches this year have not centred on the civil wars of the ANC but on matters of national importance.

As a member of Brics SA’s turn to host the annual summit was hit by snags associated with the conduct of Russian president Vladimir Putin, whose invasion of Ukraine in 2022 has pitted him against much of the world — including countries with which SA maintains important trade relationships.

The US, in particular, sought to use a combination of hard and soft power to counter Putin’s actions. In its application of its hard power, Washington  implemented sanctions on institutions and individuals regarded as critical to the Russian war effort. Military support provided to Ukraine has enabled it to resist the Russian offensive for far longer than most people thought possible. 

Putin’s retaliation to the sanctions was to leverage Russia’s influence on energy markets, creating a supply crunch that led to a steep escalation in energy prices, much to the detriment of innocent bystanders such as SA. 

In leveraging its soft power, the US sought to persuade bystander states to take positions against Russia. The problem was that it required countries like SA to balance their foreign policy positions against intersectional issues of pre-existing trade and diplomatic relationships.

SA’s case was complicated by its membership of the Brics alliance and the ANC’s historical ties to the Russian state. Faced with this dilemma, SA adopted a position of non-alignment which — while less than what the US had hoped — at least avoided alienating everyone. The moral probity of that decision notwithstanding, it allowed SA to maintain a safe zone of neutrality during a conflict. 

Unfortunately, a couple of crisis points threatened that posture: the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued a warrant of arrest for Putin, and the US ambassador claimed SA was actively supporting the Russian war effort. The arrest warrant was a headache as SA’s endorsement of the ICC meant it was obligated to arrest Putin.

Ramaphosa’s ability to persuade Putin to stay away from the Brics summit was the first diplomatic victory in the crisis. The second was his ability to chair the summit and enable it to emerge with a new, expanded alliance. Whether the addition of members will benefit SA or weaken its voice remains to be seen, but the consensus shared by Brics leaders was that Ramaphosa had pulled off a diplomatic coup by getting the deal for new members across the line.

A potential victory is the US ambassador’s megaphone theatrics turning out to be baseless once the investigation report into the Lady R saga is concluded. Still, one notable consequence of the allegation was an increase in the possibility of the US once again using its soft power by excluding SA from the benefits of the African Growth & Opportunity Act (Agoa), which offers preferential treatment for SA exports to the US market.

Exclusion from Agoa would cost SA businesses and the economy billions of rand each year and set back Ramaphosa’s agenda for improving the country’s economic prospects. As the country prepares to host the Agoa summit, Ramaphosa will have to invoke his diplomatic prowess once again to champion the country’s case for continued eligibility.

Unfortunately for him, the partisan nature of US politicians diminishes the space for negotiation, and even his diplomatic efforts may not survive the predetermined positions of Republican senators. If SA is dropped from Agoa Ramaphosa's diplomatic scorecard for this year will be dimmed by the negative consequences for the economy.

• Sithole (@coruscakhaya) is an accountant, academic and activist.