NEWS ANALYSIS: Will Zuma’s uMkhonto weSizwe party be a clever manoeuvre or political swansong?

The decision by former ANC and state president Jacob Zuma to publicly call for the electorate and the party’s base to ditch it at what are expected to be hotly contested elections next year, is either a masterstroke by a man determined to remain a feature of SA’s mainstream politics or a political swansong.

Zuma, who suffered the humiliation of being recalled by the Cyril Ramaphosa-led national executive committee (NEC) in 2018, has been a thorn in the sides of both the party and its leader since then.

He capped his dislike for the direction of the party under Ramaphosa with an unprecedented move,  making a clarion call for the voters to not support “Ramaphosa’s ANC” but rather place their trust in the newly-formed political party  uMkhonto weSizwe, or “spear of the nation”, of which Zuma is a central figure.

More telling is that Zuma said he will remain a member of the ANC, and continue to take part in efforts to save it from itself.

The choice of name of uMkhonto weSizwe for the registered party to contest the next election gives a glimpse into Zuma’s thinking.

The formation of uMkhonto weSizwe in December 1961 was borne out of contestation of ideas in the ANC and the SACP which pitted those who were comfortable with passive resistance and non-violence against those who advocated for armed struggle and taking the battle to the pugnacious apartheid regime.

In essence, the formation of uMkhonto weSizwe as the ANC’s military wing changed the direction of both the party and the fight for liberation.

The military wing was not a breakaway party — it was an extension of the ANC. This is what Zuma is seemingly trying to communicate in his support of the outfit that will contest for state power.

He is communicating a singular but powerful message to members of the ANC who are unhappy with the direction of the party and the state it governs: “We don’t have to leave the ANC, but let’s create an electoral base to force the ANC to change course.”

The timing for Zuma, who has learnt to survive politically since 2005 when he was fired as deputy president by Thabo Mbeki, is impeccable.

Many polls suggest the ANC is on course to drop below 50% in next year’s ballot. By creating an electoral base adjacent to the ANC, Zuma hopes to be around a negotiating table after next year’s election and influence the direction not only of the party, but of the country too.

Zuma is also daring the ANC to expel him, so the contrast between “Ramaphosa’s ANC’ and his uMkhonto weSizwe is sharp.

It’s a victimhood card he has played successfully before. An expulsion could simply confirm his martyrdom to those who support him. 

“It is all about him. Zuma’s statements change based on what he wants at the moment. Zuma was always self-serving,” Professor Mcebisi Ndletyana, a political analyst, said. “I would be surprised if they don’t expel him [from the ANC]. He has long tainted the name of the ANC. But yes, he exploits every situation for his own benefit. What the ANC’s bigger problem is is the tribalistic nature of the way those in KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) vote. It is very possible for the ANC to lose mass support there.”

But senior party leaders seem to have shrugged off Zuma's announcement and appear ready to move on, saying the move had been expected for “some time” and that the former president simply had no more room to manoeuvre.

They see Zuma’s possible departure as an opportunity to remove the albatross of state capture around its neck and to push forward its reform agenda.

“Now the ANC leadership can lead a campaign of genuine reform. Up to now President Cyril Ramaphosa has insisted that his call for unity was not for the sake of it but based on clear principles. Zuma has set him and the ANC free of its existential crisis. Loyalty to Zuma is no longer a factor,” said one senior ANC leader.

But it would be a mistake for the ANC to easily dismiss Zuma’s decision not to vote for the party he has been a part of for 60 years, and which he led until 2017. 

Zuma’s public declaration will definitely be felt in the outcome of the upcoming national and provincial elections, but the extent of the effect remains in question.

With only a few months to to go before the general elections, due to be held some time between May and September 2024, the ANC has been in free fall, with latest polls suggesting that its support could fall well below 50%. The move by Zuma also spells trouble for the ANC in its traditional stronghold of KwaZulu-Natal, which is a hotly contested province.

The party has been weakened by infighting and an inability to deal with corruption within its ranks. The citizenry is also frustrated by load-shedding, a lack of jobs, an economy that is languishing in the doldrums and the rising cost of living.

The party has no choice but to send a strong message that this is not acceptable conduct by an ANC member and deal with him decisively.

But public and private comments from ANC leaders suggest that there is no immediate plan to bring disciplinary action against Zuma which could see him expelled. 

Such a move would be in line with the ANC’s constitution but would be a huge distraction from the party’s election campaign.

There is no doubt Zuma’s behaviour “is not within the framework of what is considered responsible conduct for ANC members”, said political analyst Ongama Mtimka in a podcast on sister publication TimesLIVE.

Mtimka said the national leadership, which has brushed off the matter, can learn a lot from how ANC leadership in KwaZulu-Natal engages with Zuma. “It is bold. It is assertive. Yet, at the same time, it is demonstrating understanding and the need to continue to engage Zuma,” he said. 

omarjeeh@businesslive.co.za