GRACELIN BASKARAN: Trump’s red wave beaten back in US midterm election

I woke up on Wednesday and breathed a sigh of relief. Predictions of a “red wave” Republican sweep on the US midterm election didn’t materialise. The election was largely viewed as a harbinger of what’s to come in the 2024 presidential election — a likely competition between Donald Trump and Joe Biden.

My relief stems from identity economics, a school of thought that argues people make economic choices based on their identity characteristics, so perhaps I should tell you a bit about me.

I am the child of immigrants who moved to the US four years before I was born. My parents came from very little — my grandparents were illiterate rural field labourers. We never had much money and I attended mediocre state schools. But the education we did receive, the access to healthcare and the US’s relative openness to immigrants back then were transformational. My sister is now MD of a global investment bank, I’m an economist with a PhD from Cambridge working on the climate crisis, and my brother is a software engineer.

The Trump presidency threatened my deepest values: real democracy and honouring law and order. It led to the overturning of mandatory reproductive freedom, the termination of key Affordable Care Act provisions that had improved access to healthcare, attempts to slash public education spending by $8.5bn, and the implementation of deeply anti-immigrant policies.

On Tuesday, American voters largely said no to a return of Trump’s politics. Most Republican candidates who ran were Trump supporters who had survived his purge of those in the party who didn’t agree with his policies and efforts to overturn the 2020 election. The candidates he backed took multiple blows. In a closely watched race in Pennsylvania — a battleground state seen as a reliable indicator of the 2024 presidential race outcome — Trump-backed celebrity doctor Mehmet Oz was defeated. Democrat Josh Shapiro beat Republican Doug Mastriano in the gubernatorial election.

In Arizona, a historically Republican state that has edged some tiny democratic victories, Democrat Adrian Fontes has so far won 57.5% of votes against Trump-backed conspiracy theorist and election denier Mark Finchem. The same is true in Michigan’s secretary of state election: Democrat Jocelyn Benson is up 53.6% to Republican election denier Kristina Karamo’s 44.2%.

Ron DeSantis, an anti-Trump Republican, cruised to victory in Florida, and Republican governor Greg Abbott triumphed in Texas. Then again, Abbot’s opponent campaigned for strict gun legislation and against fossil fuels — in one of the only states that doesn’t have income tax because of high oil revenues.

Perhaps Georgia is the biggest relief to me. It’s historically a Republican stronghold that miraculously went to Biden in 2020. As I write Democrat Raphael Warnock is up by 0.74 of a percentage point with 95% of votes counted. A win by Trump-backed Herschel Walker would be gut-wrenching. Multiple women have shown financial evidence and letters from Walker coercing them to have abortions. The same Walker who has supported a complete abortion ban, even in the context of rape or danger to a woman’s life. A run-off election may be required given the small margin, but we’re in promising territory.

A few Trump-backed candidates have edged victories; James Vance won the governor election in Ohio. But Democrats are winning or have won 10 of 13 governor elections. Trump publicly supported Derek Schmidt in Kansas but he seems set to lose. 

Crossing fingers that these outcomes will deter Trump, who had predicted a “great night” for Republicans. Democratic wins against the backdrop of a potential recession, high interest rates and pervasive inflation show that Americans vote based on more than their pocketbooks; they vote on values.

Speaking of values, across the board reproductive rights have been protected, either legislatively or even better through state constitutional amendments. In Michigan, California and Vermont reproductive freedom is now constitutionally protected. In Kentucky, a very red state in the Bible Belt, voters defied the odds and struck down the inclusion of a constitutional amendment banning abortion.

Unfortunately, there have been mixed outcomes on voting rights. Arizona, Nebraska and Ohio voted to tighten voting laws, which will inevitably help the Republicans going forward as they make it more difficult for disadvantaged groups, who largely vote Democrat, to vote. On the other hand, Michigan and Connecticut voted to strengthen voter inclusion.

All things considered, I’m proud of America today and I’m proud to be an American. We’re re-emerging from one of the darkest times in our history.

• Dr Baskaran (@gracebaskaran), a development economist, is a bye-fellow in economics at the University of Cambridge.