With the bond market giving finance minister Enoch Godongwana’s second medium-term budget policy statement (MTBPS) a nod of approval, one might be forgiven for thinking we’ve managed to avoid the fiscal cliff — especially seeing as the projection now is for a primary budget surplus (the difference between total revenue and noninterest expenditure) of 0.7% of GDP in 2023/2024.

Gross debt is now projected to stabilise at 71.4% of GDP in 2022/2023 — quicker than previously expected. But credibility risks remain largely in the political economy...

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