EDITORIAL: Time for a new approach in Ukraine

Today marks a year since Russian troops invaded Ukraine. What in President Vladimir Putin’s words was to be a “special military operation” that would over-run Kyiv in a matter of days has become a full-blown war, characterised by appalling war crimes, and a series of bloody offensives and counter offensive, all harking back to the unimaginable suffering of World War 2.

In a further echo of the slaughter of the 1940s, neither of the current belligerents shows any clear signs of winning. Ukraine, initially outgunned and overrun by Russian troops backed by artillery and thousands of tanks, has shown astonishing resilience and, with substantial support from the US-led Nato alliance, regained much of the ground lost in the first weeks of the conflict. The situation now is effectively one of stalemate with the people of Ukraine caught in the middle.

The toll is fast becoming incalculable. Besides the untold death and suffering, not least among the civilian population, the war has served to further weaken an already fragile world order and prolong the global economy’s re-emergence from the coronavirus pandemic.

A major victim of the war, with all the attendant geopolitical issues associated with it, is the green shoots of better relations between the US and its allies, and China.

Relations, which appeared on the mend after a trade war instituted by former US President Donald Trump, have taken another turn for the worse thanks to Beijing’s apparent indifference to the clear case of right and wrong in this conflict. That is probably explained by its own designs on Taiwan, which it says it regards as a renegade province, while the Taiwanese — and the rest of the democratic world — feel that Taiwan is a sovereign state. The recent “spy balloon” affair over American airspace has only added to the tension.

Sanctions against various Kremlin officials and their billionaire acolytes have proved only somewhat effective in wearing down the Russian economy, thanks largely to Europe’s reliance on Russian gas in general — and Germany’s in particular — as well as the questionable practices of some major trading partners.

Of further concern is the indifference of some developing nations to the conflict — and of course SA’s shameful showboating with the Russian navy — all again suggesting that global unity has been harmed by this war. 

It is said that there are no winners in war and the world is demonstrably the worse for this one — and it does seem that there are no clear winners on the battlefield either.

Putin is himself in a corner. Stuck in a war he did not plan for and cannot win against an enemy that will be resourced just enough to repel him, if not ever truly defeat him, he has no survivable way to retreat.

The US and the Europeans, also have constraints. Their electorates and taxpayers will in time tire of the cost and the lack of progress against a country that has shown itself to be utterly without scruple, and its army of unrelenting savagery.

It is important, then, to end the war while there is an appetite for action. Now is the time for a new approach, one which involves the global community persuading Putin of the futility of his zero-sum game and getting him to the negotiating table. Whether that is achieved through the delivery of military hardware and know-how, through agitation against the Putin regime in Russia itself, or through some kind of negotiation is the work of those closer to the ground.

Late last night the UN was set to adopt a resolution asserting the need to reach “as soon as possible, a comprehensive, just and lasting peace” in Ukraine. How SA voted remains to be seen, but if recent history is to be considered, there is scant hope of our representatives casting an ethical vote there.

That will be of little surprise, and should not distract us from the fact that the text is correct — that this peace is exactly what the world needs.

What remains true is that the only “just” end to this war is the exit of Russia from Ukraine. Western discomfort with the war must not be allowed to let this slip, and therefore a new approach is required, and quickly.