Ahead of the SA Reserve Bank monetary policy committee’s September meeting this week, the consensus has shifted sharply towards another 75 basis point hike. It’s hard not to see the logic.

Just weeks ago most economists were expecting the committee to gear down to 50 basis points after July’s shock 75 basis point hike. But though SA’s economy is now looking even weaker, the world economy and global markets are a lot more unfriendly. The result is while the steep global fuel and food price hikes that ramped up inflation have started to flatten, a weaker rand is preventing SA from reaping the benefits in terms of inflation. And the risks, as the committee is wont to say, are on the upside, globally and domestically...

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