Global EV sales growth halves in 2023

Worldwide sales of electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs) rose a healthy 31% in 2023, but that was down from 60% in 2022, according to market research firm Rho Motion.

“The pace of growth is slowing, but that’s what’s expected in growing markets like this,” Rho Motion data manager Charles Lester said. “You can’t double every year.”

For 2024, the firm forecasts global EV sales growth of between 25% and 30%. Bloomberg’s forecast is a more modest 21% growth in global passenger EV sales — including battery-electrics and plug-in hybrids — with 70% of those being fully electric. Bloomberg sees EV sales in China at just under 10-million units, representing almost six of every 10 EVs sold globally.

The EV share of global vehicle sales should come in at about 20% (pure-electric, 14%), up from about 17% in 2023, it adds.

Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) accounted for 9.5-million of the 13.6 million EVs sold around the world in 2023, with PHEVs accounting for the balance.

After years of accelerating growth, some automakers are concerned electric car sales in Europe and elsewhere could be heading for slowing demand as drivers wait for better, smaller and cheaper models that are two to three years down the road.

Last year BEV sales grew 50% in the US and Canada, and by 27% and 15% in Europe and China respectively.

Sales in Europe in 2024 could be affected by Germany’s abrupt decision last year to drop EV subsidies, Lester said.

Rho Motion said only 8% of Europe’s BEV sales were in the smaller car segment, though that should start to change with the arrival of smaller models such as the Citroen eC3 from Stellantis that is due to go on sale this year.

BMW said this week it passed the tipping point for combustion engine vehicle sales and now generates most sales growth from electric cars.

“The tipping point for the combustion engine is already there,” CFO Walter Mertl said, adding that in his view the milestone was reached last year.

“The current sales plateau for combustion cars will continue and then fall slightly,” he said, adding that environmental regulation that will restrict sales of such vehicles.

Carmakers are under pressure to increase their EV offerings as regulatory deadlines from China to the EU and some US states will begin to ban sales of new fossil-fuel cars from the middle of the next decade.

BMW achieved a 15% all-electric sales share last year and plans to raise that to 33% by 2026 as it rolls out six new models in its “Neue Klasse” EV-only line.

BMW’s margins for combustion engine and all-electric cars won’t reach parity before at least 2026 given the higher costs of introducing new battery technologies for later models, Mertl said.

BMW CEO Oliver Zipse said in September that the company would be “at least as profitable” when selling the Neue Klasse EVs at scale, bolstered by their lower battery costs and higher efficiency per kilowatt hour.

With Reuters