The 2023 national budget is expected to reveal good news on the past year, with elevated tax revenue, strong nominal GDP growth and some underspending likely to deliver a slightly better-than-expected budget deficit.

Unfortunately, this rosy picture is rapidly turning. Thanks to SA’s escalating energy crisis the 2023/2024 year is going to deliver growth that is far slower than expected. So, a year from now the deficit could easily be heading back up again, wiping out SA’s recent fiscal progress, most of which is thanks to the fading commodity boom anyway...

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