MIKE MULLER: Learn from others’ mistakes to keep Gauteng’s taps flowing

The good news for Gauteng and surrounds is that contracts have finally been awarded to build the Polihali Dam and tunnel, the main components of the Lesotho Highlands Water Project’s second phase. All going well, more water will flow towards Gauteng’s taps by 2028. The appointment of large Chinese companies to lead construction may be controversial, but they have a global record of delivering high quality work on time and within budget.

Other positive news is that there is no immediate shortage of water in the dams on which the region depends. They are as full as they’ve ever been this early in the summer. Rand Water should be able to take its full quota from the Integrated Vaal River System (IVRS) for the next couple of years.

While it’s a good start, full dams do not necessarily translate into water in the taps, as many Gauteng residents discovered during a hot, dry October. Those dams are full thanks to the continuing La Niña wet weather pattern, now in its third season. Provided that the climate does not swing straight to a dry El Niño from 2025 to 2028, the supply of bulk water will be reasonably secure.

That makes it a good time to step back and review what other water supply surprises lie ahead for Gauteng, its surrounding provinces and the rest of SA. It is always better to learn from the mistakes of others to avoid repeating them. The past few years have offered many learning opportunities and some serious warnings about future challenges.

The first lesson is that failure to take water management seriously can and does have devastating human and economic impacts. Supply interruptions suffered by Cape Town and Gqeberha were prime examples. In both cases, city authorities delayed infrastructure development that could have kept them water secure during acute but predictable dry periods.

At the other extreme, hydrology experts have concluded that much of April’s flood devastation in eThekwini and Msunduzi was the consequence of urban management failures rather than exceptional rainfall.

These events show that while a long-term focus is needed on the commanding heights from which the water resources flow, attention to the management of local infrastructure is just as important.

For Gauteng, Cape Town’s “Day Zero” experience was salutary. Cape Town’s political leadership decided to delay investment in new bulk supplies and rely on better management of water use to meet their needs. But when challenged by a severe drought, that approach proved overoptimistic for a city with a population growing by more than 100,000 people a year. (That the dams on which Cape Town depends hold less than two years of supply was already a warning flag; the IVRS that supplies Gauteng has more than four years of storage.)

From now to 2028, Gauteng’s population is expected to grow by about 2.5-million. Since reliable bulk water supply will stay the same over that period, there will be less water available per person. So, to avoid the risk of a Day Zero crisis average water use per person in Gauteng will have to fall 3% a year for the region to stay safe.

To achieve that reduction Gauteng’s municipalities will have to manage their distribution networks far better to reduce leaks and losses. They will also have to emulate Cape Town and improve monitoring, metering and billing to encourage residents to use water more carefully. Collecting those bills will also be important because in the long run it is Gauteng’s water users who will have to pay the R17bn cost of the dam and tunnel in Lesotho.

Better management of local drainage infrastructure is also critical. In eThekwini, failure to maintain infrastructure for stormwater drainage was aggravated by unplanned urban expansion. Drains and culverts blocked by rubbish caused floodwaters to overflow into built-up areas. The absence of stormwater drainage in poorer areas around the city or adequate protection of new developments closer to the coast created conditions for disaster. Significant parts of Gauteng face similar risks.

Keeping political leaders and citizenry focused on these practical problems is another systemic problem SA’s water sector faces. While eThekwini and Mzunduzi are concentrating on repairing their flood damage, they will soon be at risk of water shortages because of delays in expanding their bulk water supplies. They will be in good company as growth outstrips the capacity of existing water sources for cities such as Mbombela and Polokwane, though the latter, like Mangaung, is already failing to distribute effectively the water that it has.

In Gauteng, the national minister’s carefully judged decision in October to ease the limit on how much water could be taken from the IVRS for a few weeks could set a dangerous precedent. If it encourages short-sighted local politicians to insist on taking more than the carefully calculated safe volumes, the system could slide rapidly into deficit and put the region at risk of a sneaky El Niño drought.

Even in Cape Town, the city’s “water dashboard” shows that water use is already creeping up to the levels last reached in 2015, just as the Day Zero drought crisis started. The population to be served continues to grow and interventions to increase supply have been slow. Ominously, the dams on which the city depends did not fill completely  during the past winter’s wet season.

This picture of delayed responses and failure to attend to detail is not unique to SA. Water managers have always had to rely on droughts and floods — or, in the old days, typhoid and cholera — to get the attention and money for what needed to be done. As cities grow and problems get more complex, the crises that occur become more acute and responses take longer to implement.

Water is a patient teacher and will continue to repeat its lessons until they are well understood. But across the country citizens who have to jostle in queues to fill a bucket of water will not be as forgiving.

• Muller is a visiting adjunct professor at the Wits School of Governance. He worked on climate and energy strategies for the region as a national planning commissioner focused on economic infrastructure, environmental sustainability and regional co-operation.