LETTER: Victory for Putin in Ukraine looks unlikely

Negotiations between Ukraine and Russia are continuous, with contradictory reports on their progress; these will determine the immediate outcome of the conflict. A victory for Russia, with imposed terms, is unlikely. The speculations here look to the future. 

War, along with its horrors, causes change, much of it unforeseen, and Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine has already shown it is going to be no exception — assuming the world escapes a nuclear finale, which we must.

The North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (Nato) has been spurred to renew its purpose and energy, restoring the US leadership compromised under Donald Trump; the EU’s aim of ever closer union will be accelerated, signalled by the Versailles Declaration last week; and Russia’s status as a declining secondary power will be confirmed. 

The Cold War may resume temporarily and conceal this, but equally possible is Russia’s isolation as a pariah state fallen behind the times: the sick man of 21st-century Europe, as the Ottoman Empire was in the 19th. As an audition for the role, Putin led his country into an old-fashioned war he could not win. China, the modernising coming world power with no vital interests in Europe, can hardly be anxious to share the Kremlin’s blunder.

Nor is it unduly optimistic to see liberal democracy making a comeback after a period in the doldrums, as authoritarian government is exposed not only as brutal and barren but a potential death threat to all. 

If Russia is so sidelined, the US may see advantage in courting China, the only remaining equal, to impose a steadying Pax Sino-Americana. It would involve rejecting Trumpism, maybe muted trumpeting of the delights of “democracy”, and a balanced deal in the South China Sea, but necessity has led to diplomacy managing greater demands.

What, after all, does Trump’s national machismo have to offer after his alter ego Putin’s failed adventure, beside the terrifying possibility of nuclear extinction?

There was a time when speculation foresaw Russia and the US getting together in the 21st century to resist the power of China. Putin has seen that off. And which leader, whatever their differences, would follow the Russian autocrat now?

Paul Whelan
Via email

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