NICHOLAS SHUBITZ: China and India compete for influence in the Maldives

The Maldives, an archipelago nation with a population of just half-a-million people, has become a battleground between China and India for influence in the Indian Ocean. While the beach lover’s paradise has relied on its nearest neighbour, India, for much of its food imports and tourism, newly elected President Mohamed Muizzu is pro-Beijing and openly antagonistic towards New Delhi. This political shift has led to calls for a tourism boycott in India, while the Maldives has asked India to withdraw its troops from the nation. 

The Maldives is crucial to both India and China for obvious geographical reasons. The islands occupy a strategically important position in the Indian Ocean between the Indian subcontinent, the Arabian peninsula, the Red Sea and the east coast of Africa. This influential geostrategic location has made the Maldives politically, economically and military significant to these prominent Brics rivals.

India’s foreign policy seeks to maintain a strong presence in the Indian Ocean, in what is known as its Neighbourhood First policy. Its goal is to contain Pakistan while fostering indispensable economic ties with the smaller states on its periphery, such as Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh and the Maldives. However, just as manufacturers have shifted production from China to India to avoid risks associated with an overly dominant China, many of India’s smaller neighbours have sought to resist Indian regional dominance by courting closer relations with Beijing.  

This competition for influence usually plays to China’s strengths, with its enormous domestic market and aggressive foreign investment strategy. But besides these economic factors there are political issues too. India’s Hindu nationalist ideology is sometimes considered discriminatory by adherents to minority religions, and can produce anti-India sentiment in the smaller regional states, especially Muslim ones such as the Maldives. This could explain why the Maldives elected a pro-China president who campaigned against India’s growing influence on the islands.

Nevertheless, this political shift in the Maldives could come with economic consequences. As much as the new administration appears to be hostile to India, it cannot afford to ignore or dismiss New Delhi completely. With tourism comprising more than a quarter of the Maldives’ national income, the effect on the tourism market alone could be severe. The Maldives has already sought to limit the damage and ultimately the shift towards China could prove more about bargaining for increased investment and maintaining independence than actively challenging India.  

Tourism boycott 

After making disparaging remarks about Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on social media, several Maldives ministers were forced to resign. In response to the scandalous comments one of the largest Indian ticket-booking sites, EaseMyTrip, suspended all flight bookings to the popular tourist destination. The Maldives Association of Travel Agents & Tour Operators has urged the company to restart bookings, noting that the tourism sector is crucial to the island nation’s economy, as it employs more than 40,000 people. 

After the ministers were dismissed for their comments the Maldives foreign ministry distanced itself from the statements, clarifying that the opinions were not the government’s position and were made in their personal capacities. However, a host of opposition leaders have demanded that Muizzu, who was elected in October 2023, be held accountable for the fallout. The Maldives Association of Tourism strongly condemned the derogatory remarks, which included references to Modi as a “terrorist” and a “clown”, and hailed India as one of the Maldives’ closest neighbours and allies. 

Meanwhile, Muizzu, who embarked on a five-day state visit to China amid the unfolding spat with New Delhi, urged Beijing to encourage more tourists to visit his country. Speaking at a forum in Fujian province, Muizzu said China was the Maldives’ biggest source of tourists before the coronavirus and he urged the country to intensify its efforts to regain this position. According to Maldives tourism ministry data, India and Russia topped the list of visitors in 2023 with 210,000 arrivals each, while visitors from China made up the third-biggest group with roughly 190,000 visits recorded last year. 

Military developments 

The spat between India and the Maldives has not just touched politics and economics but also the military sphere, with the Maldives formally seeking the removal of Indian troops from the country. Pledging to remove any foreign military personnel, as well as to balance trade and reduce India’s influence, was part of Muizzu’s presidential campaign. This was a clear departure from the policies of his predecessor, Ibrahim Mohamed Solih, who cultivated close relations with New Delhi. 

The military personnel development followed days after Muizzu returned from his first trip to China since becoming president, where Beijing agreed to provide $130m for the development of Maldives’ capital city, Malé. The two states also signed an agreement on agricultural co-operation.

During his trip Muizzu hailed China as one of the Maldives’ closest allies and development partners, remarking that his government must “end its dependence on one country for imported staple foods such as rice, sugar and flour”. This was a clear reference to India. Under a bilateral agreement, India supplies these food items to the Maldives on favourable terms. 

“We may be small, but that doesn’t give anyone the licence to bully us,” Muizzu was quoted as saying by Maldivian media. “We aren’t in anyone’s backyard,” reiterated the pro-Chinese president. “We are an independent and sovereign state.”

Reflecting on these comments, Indian external affairs minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar acknowledged that this was the nature of politics and that not every state will be aligned with India all the time.   

While India offers major economic benefits to the Maldives in terms of trade and tourism, China’s economic clout could help the Maldives avoid an overreliance on India. Nevertheless, there could be economic repercussions for countries such as the Maldives, caught in an inter-Brics power struggle for influence among emerging market economies. These countries, many of which are found in Africa, will need to strike a delicate balance between these competing powers.  

• Shubitz is an independent Brics analyst.