ECONOMIC WEEK AHEAD: Moderate pickup in inflation unlikely to influence 2021 rate outlook
Consumer inflation is likely to remain below the midpoint of the 3%-6% target band, leaving room to keep rates lower for longer
Consumer inflation is expected to accelerate slightly this week on higher fuel prices, but as long as core inflation remains muted it is unlikely to alter the consensus view that domestic interest rates will remain on hold for the rest of the year.
Most economists expect the March consumer price index (CPI), which will be released by Stats SA on Wednesday, to have lifted slightly above 3% year on year from the recent low of 2.9% year on year in February on the back of rising fuel prices. Petrol and diesel prices rose 65c/l and 56c/l, respectively, during March. The median estimate of 13 forecasts in a Bloomberg survey indicates CPI will reach an annual 3.3% in March...