LETTER: Counting on the good fortune of global events is a bad growth strategy
Logistical problems worsened by blockades of the crucial N3 route between Gauteng and KZN, as well as increased load-shedding, will further depress export capabilities
01 July 2022 - 11:21
Support our award-winning journalism. The Premium package (digital only) is R30 for the first month and thereafter you pay R129 p/m now ad-free for all subscribers.
In terms of coal and precious metals, the country has numerous deep deposits and the global appetite for raw materials has boosted the country’s profile. But counting on the good fortune of global events is not a solid path for substantive future growth.
The country’s trade surplus increased in May. However, the current total of R105.9bn is paltry when compared with the R200.34bn at the same time in 2021. So far year on year imports have grown 29.1% and exports just 8.2%. Continued logistical problems, exacerbated by blockades of the crucial N3 route between Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal, as well as increased rolling blackouts, will further depress export capabilities.
Since the end of March, the London Metal Exchange Index has dropped 23% (as of June 29). Materials such as tin, aluminium and copper are all down. With further interest-rate hikes firmly on the table for the rest of the year (from most central banks around the world), the conditions for borrowing and economic activity will be depressed. Businesses and capital more broadly will likely reassess current operations, and possibly shift to locales with fewer operational risks than SA.
If China (one of SA’s biggest trading partners) were to change course with its “zero-Covid-19” policy stance, renewed demand for commodities would boost the economy and fiscus even more. But the prospect of such a radical shift by the Chinese government is unlikely. SA should instead do far more to generate economic activity, investment and industrialisation by getting the basics right to ensure it is always an attractive and reliable destination for trade.
The low-hanging fruit for reform pertains especially to port and rail infrastructure; already neighbouring countries are benefiting from SA’s foot-dragging as importers and exports across various industries look for new avenues of least resistance to get goods and materials into and out of the country.
Chris Hattingh Centre for Risk Analysis
JOIN THE DISCUSSION: Send us an email with your comments to letters@businesslive.co.za. Letters of more than 300 words will be edited for length. Anonymous correspondence will not be published. Writers should include a daytime telephone number.
Support our award-winning journalism. The Premium package (digital only) is R30 for the first month and thereafter you pay R129 p/m now ad-free for all subscribers.
LETTER: Counting on the good fortune of global events is a bad growth strategy
Logistical problems worsened by blockades of the crucial N3 route between Gauteng and KZN, as well as increased load-shedding, will further depress export capabilities
The SA economy and fiscus have benefited immensely from the commodities boom of the last two years (“SA trade surplus jumps, but is well below 2021 levels,” June 30).
In terms of coal and precious metals, the country has numerous deep deposits and the global appetite for raw materials has boosted the country’s profile. But counting on the good fortune of global events is not a solid path for substantive future growth.
The country’s trade surplus increased in May. However, the current total of R105.9bn is paltry when compared with the R200.34bn at the same time in 2021. So far year on year imports have grown 29.1% and exports just 8.2%. Continued logistical problems, exacerbated by blockades of the crucial N3 route between Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal, as well as increased rolling blackouts, will further depress export capabilities.
Since the end of March, the London Metal Exchange Index has dropped 23% (as of June 29). Materials such as tin, aluminium and copper are all down. With further interest-rate hikes firmly on the table for the rest of the year (from most central banks around the world), the conditions for borrowing and economic activity will be depressed. Businesses and capital more broadly will likely reassess current operations, and possibly shift to locales with fewer operational risks than SA.
If China (one of SA’s biggest trading partners) were to change course with its “zero-Covid-19” policy stance, renewed demand for commodities would boost the economy and fiscus even more. But the prospect of such a radical shift by the Chinese government is unlikely. SA should instead do far more to generate economic activity, investment and industrialisation by getting the basics right to ensure it is always an attractive and reliable destination for trade.
The low-hanging fruit for reform pertains especially to port and rail infrastructure; already neighbouring countries are benefiting from SA’s foot-dragging as importers and exports across various industries look for new avenues of least resistance to get goods and materials into and out of the country.
Chris Hattingh
Centre for Risk Analysis
JOIN THE DISCUSSION: Send us an email with your comments to letters@businesslive.co.za. Letters of more than 300 words will be edited for length. Anonymous correspondence will not be published. Writers should include a daytime telephone number.
ANNABEL BISHOP: Competition really does matter for economic growth
Absa shakes up the way it operates
SA benefits as investors steer clear of pariah Russia
Would you like to comment on this article?
Sign up (it's quick and free) or sign in now.
Please read our Comment Policy before commenting.
Most Read
Related Articles
SA benefits as investors steer clear of pariah Russia
WATCH: The state of the South African economy
Consumer confidence plunges to three-decade low
Published by Arena Holdings and distributed with the Financial Mail on the last Thursday of every month except December and January.