GRACELIN BASKARAN: An awful 2022, but a few encouraging upsides

As I flip through the news it’s all fairly grim — the Phala Phala scandal, Ukraine-Russia, China-Taiwan, arrests after a potential German coup, the list goes on. But as the year winds down I’m choosing gratitude — for all the ways democracy and decency have been affirmed. Here’s my gratitude list for 2022.

At the start of the year, Donald Trump seemed untouchable and well positioned for a 2024 run. But 2022 has also shown us that undermining democracy has far-reaching consequences, no matter who you are. In the past few months the vast majority of Trump-backed candidates lost in the midterm elections, he was formally subpoenaed by the January 6 insurrection committee, and just this week the Trump Organisation was found guilty on several counts of criminal tax fraud.

This brings me to my second point — Raphael Warnock’s win in the Georgia Senate run-off this week enables the Democrats to take more operational control of the Senate and more easily confirm judicial nominees that could pave the way to key investigations and accountability efforts.

It also gives the Democrats more policy ammunition. Early on in the Biden presidency key legislation, like mandating free preschool, was killed by friendly fire. Though the Democrats had 50 out of 100 seats before the midterms, they had only 48 in favour, with Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema (affectionately called Dinos — Democrats in name only) voting against. Now, with Warnock’s win, the Democrats will have 51 seats, so they have more wiggle room.

Warnock’s win also confirmed voters’ preference for decency over party loyalty, in a deeply Republican state. Trump-backed Herschel Walker has taken a strong stance in favour of a full ban on abortion, while having been shown to have coerced multiple  female partners to have abortions. His former wife also said Walker held a gun to her head and threatened to kill her — which Walker has never denied, instead blaming violence on his mental health.

Third, Jair Bolsonaro lost a closely watched election in Brazil. Trump was a strong ally of Bolsonaro — ahead of the election, he made a video stating: “I strongly endorse president Bolsonaro ... So go out and vote for Bolsonaro.” Deforestation increased 75% in the three years after he took office in 2019, with 13,000ha cleared in 2021 alone, the most since 2008. With the Amazon at a critical tipping point, voters have said enough is enough.

And fourth, much of the world rallied around Ukraine, even though it came at a steep cost to countries and households. In March, gas prices hit a record high in the US, and in Europe  between February 23 and July 31 gas and electricity wholesale prices increased 115% and 237% respectively. Still, countries did not waver in their support to the Ukraine — the EU and US have sent €52bn and €48bn respectively, in addition to holding their ground with economic sanctions.

It’s not all peaches and cream though. The reality is that we’ve also had profound losses. In the US women lost their constitutional right to abortion, and gun rights were strengthened when the supreme court upended firearm restrictions. The latter came just after 19 children and two adults were horrifically shot at a primary school in Texas. Democrat control on judicial nominees has never been more important.

Profound political challenges have arisen on every continent. In SA Phala Phala has brought the country to the edge of crisis and undermined the integrity of the executive, despite it being in the best hands possible. Tensions between China and Taiwan have continued to escalate, and the likelihood of an invasion seems to be increasing. But it appears SA will remain stable, while Canada and the US have pledged support to Taiwan.

The effects of poor environmental decision-making have continued to catch up with us. In 2022 more than $30bn in weather disasters took place, with heatwaves killing more than 16,000 people in Europe and 1,700 due to flooding in Pakistan. SA lost more than 450 people to the KwaZulu-Natal floods. Still, global progress has been made to reduce emissions and move towards net zero.

It’s been a long year for most of us. Life has become expensive as inflation hit our pocketbooks, anxiety has mounted as we eyed a potential recession, and interest rate hikes made buying a car or house that much harder. But there’s much to be thankful for, so as the year ends and we all fold into family and friends, don’t forget to spend a moment to reflect on all that’s gone well, in our personal, national and global spheres.

• Dr Baskaran (@gracebaskaran), a development economist, is a bye-fellow in economics at the University of Cambridge.