Finance minister Tito Mboweni will table the medium-term budget policy statement on Wednesday. It is widely expected that the fiscal trajectory will have worsened compared to the February budget review.

The Treasury has competent public servants, who over the years have always been able to produce a budget that meets ratings agency and market expectations. They are likely to succeed in meeting the revised but lower expectations compared with the February budget, as they now face a different test. One not about the numbers, because it is a near consensus view that the trajectory of both the fiscal deficit and debt-to-GDP ratio will deteriorate, but.a credibility test, especially for the fiscal outlook beyond 2019.

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