PETER APPS: Beijing keeps the pressure on Washington as Gaza and Ukraine conflicts rage

As US and European warships gathered in the eastern Mediterranean amid rising tensions around Israel last weekend, the carrier USS Ronald Reagan dropped anchor off Manila to quietly project the message that Washington would stand behind the Philippines in any conflict in the South China Sea.

Recent weeks have seen significant escalation in maritime disputes between China and the Philippines, particularly over Manila’s efforts to resupply a wrecked US-made landing craft on the Second Thomas Shoal, within the internationally recognised Philippines Exclusive Economic Zone but also claimed by China.

On October 22, Filipino officials accused a Chinese coastguard ship and accompanying vessel of ramming a Filipino coastguard ship and supply boat near the reef. There has been a string of incidents in recent months, including in August when a Chinese coastguard cutter was filmed blasting Filipino vessels with a water cannon. Still, the ramming incident was the first time Beijing had been accused of deliberately hitting a vessel of a foreign government.

Events on Second Thomas Shoal haven’t captured global headlines, but they bring with them their own growing risk of escalation and unanticipated war.

Within the Philippines and in Washington, some suspect Beijing is deliberately ramping up tension in the region while the US has its focus on Europe and the Middle East, hoping to demonstrate the limits of US power as China intensifies its threats against neighbouring Taiwan.

It is a confrontation that could easily escalate. Last week, US officials reported that a Chinese J-11 fighter jet came within 10 feet of a US B-52 bomber operating over an unspecified area of the South China Sea, warning that its pilot came close to having a disastrous unintended collision.

Late October, after the ramming incident, also saw an unusually explicit series of US warnings — including from President Joe Biden — that any attack on Filipino vessels, aircraft or armed forces would trigger Washington’s 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty.

That statement provoked further Chinese anger, with officials in Beijing saying the US had “no right” to get involved in South China Sea territorial disputes.

Beijing has appeared determined to make it as difficult as possible for the small detachment of Filipino marines to keep occupying the BRP Sierra Madre, the US Navy tank landing ship now renamed USS Harnett County, that launched in 1944 and deliberately beached on Second Thomas Shoal in 1999 to provide a base from which to assert the Filipino presence.

Filipino officials say the condition of the vessel continues to deteriorate, but that they remain determined to continue asserting their maritime rights when necessary.

In September, a Filipino naval diver was filmed cutting a Chinese underwater barrier — which appeared to be a simple rope linking several buoys — blocking Filipino fishing vessels from waters near Scarborough Shoal, another disputed reef.

In what appeared a sign of escalating confrontation, China on Monday accused a Filipino military vessel of “illegally” entering into waters near Scarborough Shoal, demanding the government in Manila ensure such activity ceased immediately.

The Philippines says its ships have the right to operate in the area, and appears keen to keep taking action to support that.

Wider confrontation

The face-off is part of a much wider confrontation. Beijing is determined to assert its sovereignty over the approximately 90% of the 3.5-million km² South China Sea enclosed in its “nine-dashed line”, which it says is supported by ancient maritime records, giving it access to potentially huge energy, fishing and undersea mineral reserves.

China reasserted those claims this week at the three-day Xiangshan military conference in Beijing attended by representatives of dozens of nations, at which senior Chinese officials again also restated their determination to assert control over self-ruled Taiwan.

The conference was attended by Russian defence minister Sergei Shoigu, who again stressed Moscow’s alliance with Beijing while both Russian and Chinese officials blamed the US for rising global tensions.

But the conference also saw the announcement of renewed US-Chinese military dialogue, which was suspended last year after House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan.

Chinese President Xi Jinping and Biden have agreed to meet in coming weeks. While that might be a sign they wish to avoid accidental war, neither side is willing to show weakness in the South China Sea or elsewhere.

Beijing’s first domestically manufactured aircraft carrier, the Shandong, was reported in waters near Taiwan last week, which China views as a rogue province and has vowed to capture by force if needed. US officials say Xi has ordered China’s military to be ready to do so by 2027 and that deterring that attack is now the top global priority for the Biden administration.

Crucial bases

Until recently, most nearby neighbours including Vietnam, Indonesia and Malaysia have shown limited appetite for challenging Beijing on maritime claims or other issues. Previous Filipino president Rodrigo Duterte — facing widespread international criticism over his human rights record — in particular prioritised good China relations.

That began to change after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, which ramped up already rising Asian concerns of similar acts by China. That in turn prompted Duterte’s government to announce it would offer Filipino bases to US forces in the event of a wider war.

Co-operation has intensified sharply with the election in June 2022 of President Ferdinand Marcos jnr, son of the former dictator of the same name who was ousted in a largely bloodless revolution in 1986. Supporters of Duterte have now reverted to a more pro-China position, warning the Marcos government is risking outright war.

In February, the Marcos government granted the US access to four more military bases, bringing the total number of US military sites in the country to nine. Filipino officials say they include Luzon, the closest part of the Philippines to Taiwan, as well as Palawan near the disputed Spratly Islands.

Those locations could prove critical in any conflict over Taiwan, in which analysts expect the Chinese military to attempt to blockade the island and potentially use missiles, planes and drones to prevent the US or any other ally from supporting the government in Taipei.

In the first half of October, US forces led joint exercises in the Philippines involving more than 1,800 personnel, including warships from Britain, Canada and Japan — likely giving the government in Manila reasonable confidence Washington and its allies will have its back should the current confrontation escalate.

That might give Beijing pause for thought but, equally, China’s leaders may conclude that by continuing to escalate regardless, they are also sending a broader message of determination that will lend credibility to their pressure on Taiwan.

Should they continue to pursue that course, 2024, and the years that follow, are likely to get progressively more dangerous for both the region and the world.

* Peter Apps is a Reuters columnist writing on defence and security issues. He joined Reuters in 2003, reporting from Southern Africa and Sri Lanka and on global defence issues. He has been a columnist since 2016. He is also the founder of a think-tank, the Project for Study of the 21st Century, and, since 2016, has been a Labour Party activist and British Army reservist.