SA’s black population considering emigration — survey
Black South Africans are looking to the US and UK for better employment and business opportunities, says the Social Research Foundation
16 September 2022 - 18:02
byLuyolo Mkentane
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Black South Africans have identified the economic superpowers of the US and UK as among global destinations they would like to live, work and raise their children as many warm up to the idea of emigrating for better employment and business opportunities.
The issue of immigration has become a political hot potato in SA, with simmering tensions between local and foreign nationals as they fight over jobs and other economic opportunities. This has given rise to vigilante groups such as Operation Dudula, which has been holding protest marches across the country, hounding those it perceives to be in the country illegally.
In its September report, which looked into the share of registered voters in SA considering emigration, the Social Research Foundation (SRF) found that those aged between 25-29, living in urban areas, who are university graduates and earning up to R20,000 per month were considering moving abroad for better prospects.
Brain drain
This could result in a brain drain for SA if the country’s top skilled, young university graduates and high-earning city dwellers were to get opportunities overseas, the SRF, a think-tank focusing on public policy issues and promotion of democracy, has found.
The foundation said the data is based on an opinion survey it commissioned in July and conducted telephonically among a sample of 3,204 randomly selected and demographically and regionally representative registered voters. The overall margin of error is 1.7%.
There are 26-million registered voters in SA, according to the Electoral Commission of SA (IEC). In the report, 23.4% of polled registered voters said they were considering emigration, while 76.1% were against the idea.
According to the SRF report, 16% of black people said they are considering emigrating, compared to 55% of coloured people, 55% of Indian people and 38% of whites. 83% of black people were not considering emigrating.
Most black people (67%) said they would prefer their children to live and work abroad, compared to 79% of coloured people, 58% of Indian people and 61% of whites.
A minority of black people surveyed (33%) said they would prefer to live, work and raise their children in the US, while 17% chose the UK, 8% were in favour of Germany and 13% preferred Cuba.
The survey found that 53% of respondents with university qualifications and 33% of matric certificate holders were considering moving abroad, while 100% of those with no formal education said they were not leaving.
Just under a quarter of all registered voters, and by extrapolation likely adult South Africans, are considering emigration. This figure rises with social and economic status.
The Social Research Foundation
32% of urban dwellers were in favour of emigration, saying they would consider leaving SA, while 80% of those in rural areas said no.
Those aged 25-29 (47%) and 30-39 (40%) were in favour of emigration, while those aged 60 and older (90%), 50-59 (84%) and 18-24 (74%) had no plans of relocating.
Income also played a huge role among the respondents, with 92% of those earning more than R20,000 per month saying no to emigration, while 55% of registered voters taking home between R12,000-R20,000 monthly said yes.
When it comes to political affiliations, 12% of registered voters supporting the ANC said yes to emigration, compared to 34% of DA voters, 36% of EFF voters, 49% of FF+ voters and 49% of ActionSA (ASA) voters.
The SRF said: “Just under a quarter of all registered voters, and by extrapolation likely adult South Africans, are considering emigration. This figure rises with social and economic status. Amongst university graduates, for example, over half of respondents indicate that they are considering emigration whilst near half of upper income earners indicate the same.”
It said the data is consistent with the foundation’s past findings on confidence in SA’s future. “Just two in 10 ANC voters are considering emigration whilst just over three in 10 EFF and DA voters and near half of FF+ and ASA voters are.
“The upshot of the data is that SA is vulnerable to surrendering near half of its top skills base and income earners, and by extension much of its remaining tax base, in the event of these individuals securing employment and business opportunities overseas.”
Support our award-winning journalism. The Premium package (digital only) is R30 for the first month and thereafter you pay R129 p/m now ad-free for all subscribers.
SA’s black population considering emigration — survey
Black South Africans are looking to the US and UK for better employment and business opportunities, says the Social Research Foundation
Black South Africans have identified the economic superpowers of the US and UK as among global destinations they would like to live, work and raise their children as many warm up to the idea of emigrating for better employment and business opportunities.
The issue of immigration has become a political hot potato in SA, with simmering tensions between local and foreign nationals as they fight over jobs and other economic opportunities. This has given rise to vigilante groups such as Operation Dudula, which has been holding protest marches across the country, hounding those it perceives to be in the country illegally.
In its September report, which looked into the share of registered voters in SA considering emigration, the Social Research Foundation (SRF) found that those aged between 25-29, living in urban areas, who are university graduates and earning up to R20,000 per month were considering moving abroad for better prospects.
Brain drain
This could result in a brain drain for SA if the country’s top skilled, young university graduates and high-earning city dwellers were to get opportunities overseas, the SRF, a think-tank focusing on public policy issues and promotion of democracy, has found.
The foundation said the data is based on an opinion survey it commissioned in July and conducted telephonically among a sample of 3,204 randomly selected and demographically and regionally representative registered voters. The overall margin of error is 1.7%.
There are 26-million registered voters in SA, according to the Electoral Commission of SA (IEC). In the report, 23.4% of polled registered voters said they were considering emigration, while 76.1% were against the idea.
According to the SRF report, 16% of black people said they are considering emigrating, compared to 55% of coloured people, 55% of Indian people and 38% of whites. 83% of black people were not considering emigrating.
Most black people (67%) said they would prefer their children to live and work abroad, compared to 79% of coloured people, 58% of Indian people and 61% of whites.
A minority of black people surveyed (33%) said they would prefer to live, work and raise their children in the US, while 17% chose the UK, 8% were in favour of Germany and 13% preferred Cuba.
The survey found that 53% of respondents with university qualifications and 33% of matric certificate holders were considering moving abroad, while 100% of those with no formal education said they were not leaving.
32% of urban dwellers were in favour of emigration, saying they would consider leaving SA, while 80% of those in rural areas said no.
Those aged 25-29 (47%) and 30-39 (40%) were in favour of emigration, while those aged 60 and older (90%), 50-59 (84%) and 18-24 (74%) had no plans of relocating.
Income also played a huge role among the respondents, with 92% of those earning more than R20,000 per month saying no to emigration, while 55% of registered voters taking home between R12,000-R20,000 monthly said yes.
When it comes to political affiliations, 12% of registered voters supporting the ANC said yes to emigration, compared to 34% of DA voters, 36% of EFF voters, 49% of FF+ voters and 49% of ActionSA (ASA) voters.
The SRF said: “Just under a quarter of all registered voters, and by extrapolation likely adult South Africans, are considering emigration. This figure rises with social and economic status. Amongst university graduates, for example, over half of respondents indicate that they are considering emigration whilst near half of upper income earners indicate the same.”
It said the data is consistent with the foundation’s past findings on confidence in SA’s future. “Just two in 10 ANC voters are considering emigration whilst just over three in 10 EFF and DA voters and near half of FF+ and ASA voters are.
“The upshot of the data is that SA is vulnerable to surrendering near half of its top skills base and income earners, and by extension much of its remaining tax base, in the event of these individuals securing employment and business opportunities overseas.”
mkentanel@businesslive.co.za
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