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Picture: SUPPLIED
Picture: SUPPLIED

The Ukraine conflict has reached a perilous juncture. What’s left of the Ukrainian army is short of ammunition and retreating towards the Dnipro River. The US is divided over continued support, with $61bn held up in Congress.

The Ukrainian leadership’s desperate strategy is to bring Nato fully into the war with boots on the ground and fighters in the sky. To this end it has targeted Russian oil refineries, the Kerch Bridge and Russia’s Black Sea fleet, and made armed sorties into Russia.

There are US, European and British servicemen on the ground in Ukraine, though not officially in combat roles. French President Emmanuel Macron intends sending 2,000 French troops to the Belarusian border to free up Ukrainian soldiers for front-line service.

The recent insecure German Teams meeting to discuss destroying the Kerch Strait bridge with Taurus missiles was an additional tear in the veil of Nato non-involvement.

If the Ukrainian conflict turns into a European one, how could SA fuel supplies be affected? Damage to Russian refineries has cut petrol and diesel production by about 900,000 barrels a day. Total war would make Russian tankers a prime target.

PetroSA’s contract with Gazprom to rehabilitate the Mossel Bay refinery suggests it is sourcing most, if not all, of its diesel from Russia. Cuts in output due to Ukrainian strikes therefore threaten our economy, as would the threat to shipping.

It is time to up crude oil stocks and reopen our mothballed refineries.      

James Cunningham
Camps Bay

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