LETTER: Gas is the way out of the electricity crisis

We are in a power crisis. We must respond by building at least 1GW of combined-cycle gas-powered electricity generation, ideally near Cape Town (“Gas? A transition to totally wasted infrastructure”, December 8).

The Ankerlig diesel plant near Koeberg has been operating successfully since 2009, producing emergency power and, of late, baseload power. Until recently, when Eskom ran out of money to buy diesel, Ankerlig plus the similar plant near Mossel Bay, which together generate nearly 3GW, saved us from two levels of load-shedding.

These diesel-powered plants were built in a mere two years at a combined cost of less than R5bn. Rand costs have since escalated greatly, and similar plants today would cost five to 10 times as much. Nevertheless, SA cannot afford not to build additional gas power. It’s a wonder the ANC government cannot see this.

Unfortunately, the national government is virtually immobile on the power front. The ANC is moving only slowly, seemingly passively awaiting  green power from the private sector. This is despite the fact that green power alone can never replace our failing coal power. Perhaps the Western Cape can fill this breach in leadership.

SA presently suffers level 6 load-shedding, which economists have estimated costs the country about R4bn daily in lost economic activity. This would imply a cost of R600m a day for the Western Cape, on the basis that the provincial economy is 15% of the SA economy.

If the Western Cape should decide to build 1GW of gas power, this could be done in two years. The cost would be about R15bn. Interest at 10% would constitute R1.5bn per year, about R4m per day. We would also need to account for the cost of the plant, amortised over 20 years. This comes to about R2m per day.

We would then need to cost the (imported) gas — by far the greatest cost. At current EU gas prices of $130/MWh this translates to about R50m per day for a continuous power output of  1GW. The total cost to the Western Cape of 1GW of continuous power would therefore be in the range of R56m per day.

This certainly sounds a lot, but we must consider that this expenditure could safeguard the Western Cape from up to six levels of load-shedding. Level six means 6GW of undersupply countrywide. The shortfall applicable to the Western Cape would thus be about 1GW.

R56m is a considerable amount, but it is minimal compared to the R600m cost to the Western Cape economy each day of stage 6 load-shedding. Yes, green power (wind and sun) is the future, but it cannot replace coal in one great leap. Wind and sun power require hard-to-access rare metals (for the turbines and photovoltaic panels) and expertise that is in short supply globally.

A fact ignored by most green power enthusiasts is that more than half of the world’s electricity output is currently generated from gas. It is therefore incorrect to state that gas is not suitable for baseload power. Now is the time for SA to join the world in introducing a substantial element of gas-powered electricity production. Given the lethargy of the governing party nationally,  the Western Cape needs to lead the way.

Willem Cronje, Cape Town

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