MICHEL PIREU: How to spot investment crystal balls — and when to smash them
If I am not mistaken, yesterday’s S&P 20 point decline was precipitated by some smoke near the airport, where US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson was landing in Russia, later attributed to, I believe, a local burning some garbage. – Daily Speculations, April 12. As the Reformed Broker, Joshua Brown, once pointed out one of the reasons pundits keep coming up with explanations for market moves is because it’s what people think they need. They see the market go up or down or both in the course of the day and they want a logical explanation — they want answers. "Your job," says Brown, "is to be aware that fluctuations do not require ex post facto answers and to take the whole shooting match with a big helping of scepticism." People can’t stand the idea that events are random, so they try to attach meaning. Trying to explain market moves gives us the impression we are in control and can predict the future, which we can’t. What we should do is ignore the noise. Look at a long-term chart: ...
Would you like to comment on this article?
Sign up (it's quick and free) or sign in now.
Please read our Comment Policy before commenting.
Subscribe now to unlock this article.
Support BusinessLIVE’s award-winning journalism for R129 per month (digital access only).
There’s never been a more important time to support independent journalism in SA. Our subscription packages now offer an ad-free experience for readers.
Cancel anytime.
Questions? Email helpdesk@businesslive.co.za or call 0860 52 52 00. Got a subscription voucher? Redeem it now.