JONATHAN MOLVER: Teaching children to read and keeping them in school will help solve SA’s big problem

The matric exam does not serve as a reliable barometer of the health of the basic education system because it does not give us an accurate assessment of performance. The reported 82.6% pass rate does not reference the National Development Plan (NDP) target of 90%, and notably overlooks dropout rates as well as their substantial effect on young people’s futures, and our country’s economic prospects.

This skewed perspective on matric results limits rigorous analysis, diagnosis and action. To radically increase the number of young people qualifying for university entrance and employment opportunities, we need to address the reading crisis, collect better data and tackle school dropout.

In absolute terms, 2023 marked the highest number of pupils to ever pass matric, and this should be celebrated. But our celebrations should be tempered by a quick look at population growth and school enrolment. These figures tell us that more children have passed matric because there are simply more children in school. Between 2010 and 2020 the number of children between seven and 18 years of age increased from 11.5-million to just over 13-million. Between 2019 and 2023, grade 1 enrolment increased by over 70,000.

Looking at the results proportionately rather than in absolute terms, the national pass rate of 82.6% appears promising. But again, we must double click on the data to reveal the full story. Using department of basic education enrolment data from grade 1 in 2012 to grade 12 in 2023, coupled with grade 12 pass data for 2023, we've calculated the “actual” pass rate. Adjusting for the 447,105 students who dropped out before matric, the pass rate plummets from 86.2% to a catastrophic 49.2%.

Further analysis at a subject level reveals even more worrying data points. The department published a 63.5% and 76% pass rate for maths and science respectively. Once again adjusting for dropout, the number of children who begin grade 1 and go on to take and then pass matric maths is a paltry 14% (166,000). The same is true for physics (157,000).

To qualify for admission to a science, technology, engineering or maths (Stem) degree, pupils need to pass maths or science with scores of 60% or greater. When filtering the 2023 results for those who achieved 60% or above in both subjects the numbers drop to 41,273 (4%) and 35,468 (3%) of children who began grade 1 for maths and science respectively. For an economy dependent on these qualifications these outcomes are a national disaster.

The national development plan 2030 (NDP 2030) has set an ambitious target to “increase the number of students eligible to study towards maths and science-based degrees to 450,000 by 2030”. Contrary to public opinion, we are currently well short of the NDP 2030 target and have a very long way to go if our current Grade 6 learners are going to hit those numbers by the time they reach matric.

Lest this appear to be an attack on the department of basic education, it should be acknowledged that a lot of work has been done by the department and nonprofit organisations to improve the dropout rate. This has come down from 54% in 2019 to 38% in 2023. But 38% is nearly 450,000 children who don’t finish school with a matric, and based on historical data trends it is almost guaranteed that almost half of these 450,000 young people will fail to find themselves further training, education or employment. 

If we are going to improve young people’s lives and our economic prospects, we need to keep more children in school, and help them achieve results that will grant them admission to university. There are three things we can do to get this right:

• We must get better at teaching our children to read. They need to learn to read so that they can read to learn. The 2016 Pirls results showed that only about 20% of children aged 10 could read for meaning in any language. Once we adjust for dropout, the 2023 bachelor pass rate sits at 24%. These numbers are too close to be coincidental. Basic literacy opens the door to all learning, including maths literacy, digital literacy and financial literacy. To improve reading in the early grades, we need a reading budget, reading resources for all and improved pre-service teacher training.
• We need better data, and we need it early. All plans for reading, and any other curriculum intervention or school improvement plan, should be supported with rigorous, contextually relevant and implementable action plans with valid, accurate and reliable data. The current system (apart from systemics in the Western Cape) is reliant on school based assessments — designed, marked and moderated by teachers. These are at best inconsistent, and at worst highly questionable. We need better data far earlier on in the form of low stakes, standardised assessments. Armed with better information, teachers, leaders, and government officials are more likely to be sufficiently informed to take action that will result in sustainable impact.
• We absolutely have to ensure that fewer children drop out of school. Zero-Dropout, a national campaign focused on halving the rate of school dropout by 2030, proposes that in addition to better data and teaching reading, we introduce improved support and interventions to ensure pupils stay in school. Suggested interventions include increased community involvement, uniform attendance monitoring systems for provincial and national departments, a data-driven back-to-school plan for pupils who have dropped out, and improved psychosocial support with early warning systems for those at risk of dropout.

The headlines, although encouraging, are misleading. We’re heading in the right direction, but we’re still a long way from where we need to be. If the government, the private sector and civil society are to work together effectively to improve education outcomes for all, we need to teach children to read, provide all sectors with better data, and invest in rigorous and robust interventions that ensure all children stay in school and keep learning. Perhaps then we’ll begin to see a seismic shift in both learning outcomes and SA’s economic prospects.

• Molver is founding director of Proteus, which works with government, the private sector and civil society to build stronger, more equitable education systems.