How much damage to SA will its naval exercise with Russia do?

SA was due to launch a joint naval exercise with Russia and China on Friday, a move it is calling routine but which has fuelled domestic criticism and fears the drills will endanger important relations with Western partners.

World powers are vying for influence in Africa amid deepening global tensions resulting from the war in Ukraine and an increasingly aggressive Chinese posture towards self-ruled Taiwan.

Some African nations are steadfastly refusing to take sides as they seek to benefit from the diplomatic tug of war. But analysts said hosting the 10-day Mosi II exercise, which coincides with the one-year anniversary of Moscow's invasion of Ukraine on February 24, is a risky strategy.

“These exercises are going to be a lightning rod,” said Steven Gruzd, of the SA Institute of International Affairs.

SA says it maintains a neutral stance on the Ukraine conflict and abstained from voting on a UN resolution last year condemning Russia.

Pointing to similar exercises it's held with other international partners, including one with France in November, it has rejected criticism.

“SA, like any independent and sovereign state, has a right to conduct its foreign relations in line with its ... national interests,” SA's defence ministry said last month.

But six SA-based diplomats — all from Nato or EU countries — told Reuters they condemned the exercise.

“It's not right, and we told them that we do not approve,” one said.

Not welcome?

Russia's own actions have stoked the controversy. It has deployed a frigate armed with a new generation of hypersonic cruise missile called the Zircon.

President Vladimir Putin has called the weapon, which can travel at more than five times the speed of sound, “unstoppable”. And Russia's TASS news agency reported earlier in February that the frigate would perform a training launch during the exercise.

“I’m not sure SA really realises the potential backlash,” Gruzd said.

Russia’s defence ministry did not respond to a request for comment, and the SA National Defence Force has denied the TASS report. But outrage among those opposed to Russia's deployment in South African waters persists.

Last weekend, the vessel carrying the Zircon docked in Cape Town, emblazoned on its flanks with the letters Z and V — symbols Russia uses to promote the war in Ukraine.

“Cape Town will not be complicit in Russia’s evil war,” mayor Geordin Hill-Lewis wrote on Twitter, declaring the vessel unwelcome in the city.

Historical ties

The ANC has long-standing ties to Moscow, which supported its struggle against a racist apartheid regime that many Western states considered a Cold War ally.

“Russia’s, and to a lesser degree China’s, posture as an anti-colonial ally still resonates in much of Africa, even if others may now view it as ancient history,” said Cobus van Staden of the China-Global South Project.

As Russia and China now seek to build new international coalitions, he said that history is coming to the fore in Africa where some nations are keen for alternatives to Western hegemony.

SA, for example, greatly values its place within the Brics bloc alongside Russia, China, India and Brazil, and supports Beijing's plans to expand membership and increase its clout.

There is a risk, however, of Pretoria's foreign policy aims undermining its economic interests.

“Some companies have asked us if it is still safe to engage with SA for business, because they fear possible consequences,” one European ambassador told Reuters.

China is now Africa’s top bilateral trading partner, but the EU is by far the largest market for SAexports.

Two-way trade with the EU amounted to about $53bn in 2022, according to SA data, compared to a little more than $750m with Russia.

Domestic critics of SA’s push to deepen ties with Russia and China say that economic reality alone should be enough to give the government serious pause.

“It is a slap in the face of our trading partners to be this clearly on the side of Russia on the anniversary of the invasion,” said Kobus Marais, who heads the opposition DA's defence portfolio.

“We're the useful idiots.” 

Reuters