Oil creeps up on hopes of demand surge
Tokyo — Oil prices rose for a third day on Thursday on expectations for a surge in fuel demand, particularly in the US and Europe and China, later in 2021 at the same time major producers are maintaining supply discipline.
Brent crude futures were up 49 US cents, or 0.7%, at $71.84 a barrel by 2.33am GMT, the highest level since September 2019. The international benchmark gained 1.6% on Wednesday.
US West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 44c, or 0.6%, to $69.27 a barrel. Prices earlier rose to as much as $69.32, the most since October 2018, after gaining 1.5% in the previous session.
The consensus among market forecasters, including oil cartel Opec and its allies, known as Opec+, is that oil demand will exceed supply in the second half of 2021, which has spurred the recent run in prices.
Opec+ data shows that by the end of the year oil demand will be 99.8-million barrels per day (bpd) vs supply of 97.5-million bpd.
This rebalancing will be led by resurgent demand in the US, the world’s biggest oil user, from vehicle consumption this northern hemisphere summer, along with rising fuel needs in China, the world’s second-biggest oil consumer, and in the UK as it exits its Covid-19 lockdowns.
“The US driving season is a period that sees higher-than-normal fuel consumption. UK traffic is now sitting above pre-pandemic levels,” CBA commodities analyst Vivek Dhar said in a note. “We continue to see the oil demand recovery led by the US, Europe and China.”
Opec+ agreed on Tuesday to continue with plans to ease supply curbs through July.
The Opec+ meeting lasted 20 minutes, the quickest in the grouping’s history, suggesting strong compliance among members and the conviction that demand will recover once the Covid-19 pandemic shows sign of abating.
A slowdown in talks between the US and Iran over the latter’s nuclear programme has also reduced expectations for Iranian oil supply to come back to the market in 2021.
The EU envoy co-ordinating the discussions said he believed a deal would be struck at the next round of talks starting next week, though other diplomats cautioned that difficulties remain.
“The current talks in Vienna to revive the 2015 nuclear accord, which would see US sanctions on Iran lifted, now look unlikely to find a resolution,” said CBA’s Dhar.
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