The Reserve Bank’s release on Tuesday of its leading business cycle indicator is expected to remain in positive territory, but FNB chief economist Mamello Matikinca-Ngwenya warns that domestic recovery will remain fragile amid geopolitical tensions, the rising cost of living, load-shedding and capacity constraints.

The composite leading business cycle indicator in SA increased 1.0% from a month earlier in January 2022, rebounding from a downwardly revised 0.3% fall in December 2021, as four of the 10 available component time series outweighed decreases in the remaining six...