Aviation expert sees plane deliveries disappointing again in 2023

Dublin — One of the most influential figures in the aviation industry questioned the output plans of aeroplane manufacturers on Monday, saying they would struggle to meet their delivery commitments in 2023 after over-promising to airlines last year.

Steven Udvar-Hazy, executive chair of Air Lease and one of the founders of modern leasing, said it was not clear how long it would take for industrial problems caused by labour shortages and stretched supply chains to clear up.

“They (plane makers) themselves grossly misjudged how many aeroplanes they can build and most of the aircraft are delivering anywhere from three to six months late right now. And that trend is not improving,” he told the Airline Economics conference.

“We do expect continued delays this year ... I can speak from our own experience that both (plane makers) are struggling to meet their contractual commitments.”

Udvar-Hazy also raised questions over underlying production targets at Airbus and Boeing.

“There is a big difference between aspiration and reality and we have seen every prediction that both OEMs made on (production) and they've not met them,” he said.

“They’re a victim of a very complex supply chain. It’s not just the first tier suppliers, it’s the second, third, fourth. It could be a little mom and pop shop that makes something and if they can’t deliver it, you can’t get a title, get a certificate.”

Airbus has said it plans to produce 75 single-aisle jets a month by the middle of the decade, up from about 45 now.

“I think the 75 per month, it could be achieved at some point ... but when will they achieve it? That’s the question. Boeing used to build 42 737s, two every working day for many years, and they’re struggling right now to even build 30,” Udvar-Hazy said.

“So I’m much more realistic in anticipating this and I don’t think they’ll meet their production targets this year or next year — they’d like to, but they won’t be able to.”

On the demand side, Udvar-Hazy said there were more positive than negative factors despite concerns over the economy, with airline bookings in many cases surpassing 2019 levels.

“I do see some positive signs that the industry is going to stabilise, barring any unforeseen external shocks, and we're hopefully on the road to a multiyear recovery cycle.”

Reuters