A realistic assessment of the state of the South African economy – and its politics – would suggest that even in the event of a Cyril Ramaphosa victory, the country is unlikely to produce a magical ‘silver bullet’ as a result. Exceptional conditions would have to prevail in order to achieve a turn-around – and there are far too many question-marks at this stage as to whether any exist.

What are these ‘exceptional circumstances’? Firstly, a slate of leaders committed to global best practice rather than ideological and patronage-based myopia needs to be elected. Whilst that sounds an obvious pre-cursor for change, there are some caveats. The ANC elective conference is currently fraught with uncertainty surrounding the status of its delegates. With multiple provincial contestations – and even with an eventual outcome at conference in December, any winner will have to be elected in a credible way. This becomes especially problematic if the eventual size of the leadership victory i...

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