LETTER: Diesel crunch ahead poses big risk

The generators at one cold storage facility in Gauteng were drinking about 6,400l of diesel per day last week during stage 6 load-shedding. Given the number of businesses running generators around the country, even allowing for reduced generation levels from Eskom’s diesel units must mean an increased demand for this fuel, which is the blood in the veins of our national food supply chain.

Sasol’s Secunda plant is now the only major local producer, so a significant percentage must be bought on world markets, at a time when the oil majors have been closing down refining capacity globally to meet their commitments for net zero.

Russia has just shut the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline for what is referred to as routine maintenance, having reduced capacity to 40% some weeks ago, but there is a real fear that it will not reopen at the end of July. This increases the likelihood of diesel demand rising in Europe’s industrial north as companies start up emergency generators.

Quite apart from previously unimagined spikes in the diesel price — it’s already approaching R40/l in parts of Europe — diesel could become simply unobtainable. Sri Lanka’s ongoing fuel shortage has seen a mob burn the presidential residence. If Russia tightens the screws on Germany’s gas supply in late July and Eskom doesn’t solve its generation problems, additional security would be a prudent precaution at Genadendal.

James Cunningham
Camps Bay

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