EDITORIAL: Why did South Africans stay home?

The EFF’s national shutdown gamble, arguably a failure in terms of numbers and scale of actual disruption, nonetheless offered an interesting insight into the sorry state of opposition politics in SA today.  

Can it really be that so few South Africans are fed up with load-shedding and feel let down by the lackadaisical leadership of President Cyril Ramaphosa that they’d rather go about business as usual than express their dissatisfaction in overwhelming numbers? It seems so. 

If, as many pundits have been predicting, the ANC falls below 50% in next year’s general elections, how can the opposition forces capture the imagination of the voting public, offering voters a viable alternative to what the ANC has done over the past three decades? Where is the unity of purpose, or any unity at all? The big idea? 

The omens are not promising in this regard. The EFF has found what it thought were popular causes, ending load-shedding and toppling Ramaphosa into the bargain, would lull people out of a long weekend to express their dissatisfaction. It didn’t, not because they “hate’’ Malema which they may do, and not because they don’t hate load-shedding.  

If they haven’t opted out of politics altogether, they stayed at home because it’s possible they don’t feel what the EFF has to offer is any better than what they have now. There is nothing the EFF has done that inspires confidence in its contribution to governance in SA. The DA, at least, can point to its successes in the Western Cape and in municipalities where it governs, and the IFP can also claim a track record in KwaZulu-Natal.  

But on a national level, the DA with John Steenhuisen at the helm will find it difficult to break past the 20% level it occupies. After the “experiment” with Mmusi Maimane as leader, the party has turned sharply right. In putting what it regards as principle (some would say privilege) before popularity, the DA perhaps understands that it is not numbers alone that will determine the strategic outcomes of next year's elections. 

Depending on the voter turnout, the EFF has even been seen coming in at 6% next year, way below the promise it was once said to have held. It may be that the party has reached its limit, but it too might be preparing to benefit from the coalitions game should the ANC fall below 50%. 

ActionSA’s Herman Mashaba, precisely the sort of rich, crusading populist one might have imagined would capture the national zeitgeist, now comes across as cultish in his leadership, leaving voters uncertain whether his ego will trump their interests.  

In short, the opposition parties are visibly failing to capitalise on the government’s supposed lack of direction. This is obvious from the shambles in coalition governments in Gauteng, the instability and performance of which will have spooked many potential voters ahead of next year’s polls.  

SA voters are conservative in that they don’t lightly switch allegiances, something the opposition parties have to bear in mind with their promises of short-term gains and populist gimmicks that will have little real lasting benefit for the average person. 

The ANC may rightly ask if our government is so unpopular, why is there so little opposition? Sadly, a big part of the answer is that many voters have switched off to the political system and have given up hope. Come the elections next year, they will stay at home.  

The big winner in all of this is, ironically, the ANC, whose incumbency plays in its favour with its promise of stability even amid a stagnant economy and high levels of crime and civil disaffection. Unless the opposition parties can offer a coherent and attractive vision, they could find the moment slipping away from them.   

That would confirm the limits of their own growth and give the ANC encouragement that it may disappoint its critics and stay above 50% next year. At the very least such an outcome would spare the country the ruinous prospect of an ANC-EFF marriage of convenience, which could be a disaster.  

An ANC election victory may also be at the cost of widespread disillusion with the political system as a whole, laying the foundation for further antipathy to constitutionalism in the future. Certainly, it would encourage complacency, undermining necessary reforms.  

Unless the opposition can come up with a compelling narrative, its minority status could be confirmed, perhaps indefinitely. The country cries out for a convincing alternative, but with there not being one on the political horizon, those who bother to vote at all may prefer the devil they know.