EDITORIAL: Mantashe’s passionate defence of the blatantly obvious

One of the reasons why falsehoods and half-truths are so tempting to believe and easy to spread is because the best lies are those that are simple and straightforward, making them more palatable than a nuanced and complex truth.

Just think about how quickly, earlier in 2023, the false news spread that SA was experiencing load-shedding caused by a lack of coal due to increased coal exports to Europe.

It is a lie that neatly fits into the narrative that Europe has abandoned its own energy transition and is reopening its coal-fired power stations, while still forcing emerging economies such as SA to abandon coal at speed.

It is true, of course, that SA’s coal exports, after a decline in 2021, have increased  — as much as they were able to amid the near collapse of the rail system — in response to high demand and high prices. It is also true that with the sudden halt in gas supply from Russia some European countries have had to ramp up electricity production from coal. What the half-truthers conveniently omit is that the short-term increase in coal use in Europe will soon be overshadowed by a huge, long-term investment in renewable energy.

Also, it is not true that an increase in coal exports has deprived our own power stations of this fuel. The coal-fired power stations are not performing poorly because of a lack of coal, but because they are broken in such a way that no amount of coal could get them to work properly. Besides, SA has plenty of coal to go around and produces much more high-grade coal than Eskom could burn even if it were running at full capacity.

This whole coal controversy serves as a backdrop to what has become one of mineral resources & energy minister Gwede Mantashe’s favourite lines. It goes something like this: “SA is not abandoning coal. Coal is going to be with us for a very long time”.

To turn this into a whole truth he would have to say that SA is not abandoning coal quite yet, and that it will be with us for a very long time if by “a very long time” you mean 20-odd years.

He shared this message most recently at the Africa Energy Indaba in Cape Town where his address was interrupted by Greenpeace Africa protesters who believe Mantashe is resisting fast-tracking the addition of new renewable energy.

Of the 15 coal-fired power stations in Eskom’s fleet 13 would have reached their dead stop dates by 2042 and some long before that. There are also no concrete plans on the table for the government to invest in any new coal power stations. This means, as things stand, SA will by its own design almost completely phase out coal in a gradual way over the next 20 years.

Greenpeace also does not get it quite right. The planned rollout of renewable energy in SA is gaining real momentum. Compared to the less than 6,000MW of wind and solar energy that is already connected to the grid, through government procurement programmes and private sector programmes, there is now 17,000MW ready to be developed and awaiting grid access. If anything is holding back renewables it is crime, politics and grid constraints, not just Mantashe’s admiration for coal.