The odds of a US recession in the next 12 months have receded in light of the continued willingness of US households to spend more — despite far higher interest rates and reductions in the supply of money and bank credit.

US spending on goods and food services rose 0.7% in September on top of a robust increase of 0.8% in August. The annual increase in retail sales is 3.7%, and the increase over the past three months is running at an annual equivalent of 8%...

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