DESNÉ MASIE: Russia-Ukraine conflict gifts Boris Johnson a reprieve

Nobel prize-winning economist Paul Krugman is sometimes dubbed “the war economist” for his New York Times columns in which he set out the political and economic advantages of war for governments, particularly during times of economic strife such as the 2008 financial crisis and the 2014 Russia-Ukraine crisis.

In 2014 Krugman argued that the Putin administration needed a distraction from the economy. Even before its 2022 invasion of Ukraine, Russia’s economic performance was less than ideal. But it is now almost certainly headed for collapse in the wake of a raft of economic sanctions from Western nations, and the Russian military has also sustained far heavier losses than expected. It is turning out not to be the “distraction” Russian President Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin might have hoped for.

Indeed, showing himself surprisingly in tune with the culture wars characterising the zeitgeist, Putin has been moaning all week that the West has “cancelled” Russia, in the typical “woke” style that has seen trans activists “cancel” author JK Rowling. But now I digress — as is Putin. While things are going awry for Putin in Ukraine, in keeping with Krugman’s hypothesis one inadvertent beneficiary of the 2022 Russia-Ukraine War is apparent, and it is undoubtedly UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson.

Just before the invasion of Ukraine on February 24 Johnson was fighting the political fight of his life, with polls showing his approval rating at an all-time low after a raft of scandals: parties during Covid-19; the “Wallpapergate” interior-decorating expenses scandal; and fraud involving Covid-19 loans and tenders, among other things. Before the invasion, recent UK political events would almost certainly have toppled him. But Conservative Party MPs have decided it would just not to be good optics to challenge an incumbent party leader with the possibility of full-blown war in Europe.

The return of Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe to the UK on March 16, after a six-year ordeal being held hostage by the Iranian government for the decades-old $400m debt owed to it by the UK government, is an example. Zaghari-Ratcliffe’s plight was not helped by Johnson saying in 2017, when he was foreign secretary: “When I look at what Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe was doing, she was simply teaching people journalism, as I understand it,” a careless remark that was widely condemned for being incorrect, and which gave the Iranian government a premise upon which to extend her detention. Johnson had the good sense of self-preservation to lie low when Zaghari-Ratcliffe finally returned home, letting shameless foreign secretary Liz Truss attempt to take all the credit for her return.

The Russia-Ukraine war has also allowed Johnson to dodge accountability for the cynical mini-budget released by chancellor Rishi Sunak last week, which will see the poorest Britons substantially worse off during an unprecedented cost-of-living crisis. The war has seen Johnson escape with little more than a few days of rage over the mass sacking of 800 workers by P&O Ferries in a Zoom call, earlier this week, to replace them with contract labourers to save costs. Shadow transport secretary Louise Haigh has pointed out that last October the company partnered the Foreign Office for development finance, and that for the past two years DP World has sat on the UK government’s trade advisory group.

But the Conservatives may completely lose patience if the party performs poorly in May’s local government elections, particularly given Johnson’s proximity to Russian oligarchs such as the Lebedevs, and his propensity to commit epic gaffes, even about the war. At the Conservative Party spring conference in Blackpool Johnson made comments that sparked rage across the UK and EU. Britons, like Ukrainians, had the instinct “to choose freedom”, he said, citing the 2016 vote to leave the EU as a “recent example”.

• Dr Masie, a former senior editor of the Financial Mail, is chief strategist at IC Publications in London.