ISAAH MHLANGA: We’re technically trapped in low growth for the next decade
We cannot make infrastructure the driver of recovery if we cannot keep it safe from vandalism and theft
The condition of the SA economy is “critical but stable”. There are risks of relapse into a persistent underperformance on the horizon. Current medium-term expectations put the economy into sub-2% growth, and without rethinking how to aggressively and efficiently implement reforms, this trend extends into the long term. SA is technically stuck in a low-growth trap for the next decade.
The only brighter side is that economic growth has recovered from one of the worst recessions in multidecades to 4.5%-5% in 2021. However, the size of the economy remains at the same level as it was in March 2016 after the 1.5% (R67bn) contraction in the third quarter of this year. While trading partners and emerging market peers recover, the SA economy crawls and sometimes regresses primarily due to self-inflicted policy inertia. ..