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The condition of the SA economy is “critical but stable”. There are risks of relapse into a persistent underperformance on the horizon. Current medium-term expectations put the economy into sub-2% growth, and without rethinking how to aggressively and efficiently implement reforms, this trend extends into the long term. SA is technically stuck in a low-growth trap for the next decade.

The only brighter side is that economic growth has recovered from one of the worst recessions in multidecades to 4.5%-5% in 2021. However, the size of the economy remains at the same level as it was in March 2016 after the 1.5% (R67bn) contraction in the third quarter of this year. While trading partners and emerging market peers recover, the SA economy crawls and sometimes regresses primarily due to self-inflicted policy inertia.     ..

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