TONY LEON: The president loves big numbers and big talk but it’s all fantasy economics
Despite the fanciful promises, on Cyril Ramaphosa’s watch debt service costs and public service wage bill now gobble up 79c of every tax rand
My former parliamentary colleague, Errol “EK” Moorcroft, once offered sage advice on the perils of overpromising and underdelivering: “Least said, soonest mended” was his stance. President Cyril Ramaphosa and his government have a different approach. “Cyril loves big numbers” is the inside view of a National Treasury mandarin.
Indeed, a scroll back to Ramaphosa’s “new deal for SA” speech, delivered in Soweto in November 2017, just before his election as ANC president, is revealing of both his approach and Moorcroft’s caution. That address, with its expansive rhetoric and dazzling numbers, became the template for each of the half-dozen state of the nation speeches he has delivered since his presidency commenced in 2018. In his speech Ramaphosa pledged GDP growth of 3% in 2018; the actual GDP achieved was 0.8%. He also offered GDP growth of 5% by 2023; this year National Treasury projects just 1.9% by that year...
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