A false sense of comfort has swept through political circles, and the financial circle to an extent, after Moody’s comment that there is a low probability of a credit rating downgrade over the next 18 months.

A credit rating downgrade was in fact never a high probability in 2019, but a change in outlook from stable to negative was. That has not changed; I believe Moody’s is likely to change the outlook to negative on November 1.

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