Next year’s presidential election in France will probably come down — as the last one did — to a contest between President Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen, leader of Rassemblement National. This confrontation between Macron’s liberal centrism and the far-right nationalism of Le Pen is the current default setting of French politics. The traditional struggle between French socialists and conservatives for occupancy of the Elysée has, for now, been consigned to the past.

Perhaps at least part of the explanation for that can be found in the proceedings of France’s criminal justice system. Nicolas Sarkozy will appeal against Monday’s humiliating verdict by a Paris court, which found him guilty of corruption and influence peddling. But if the judgment — and an unprecedented prison sentence — is upheld, the former conservative president will join the centre-right’s presidential candidate of 2017, François Fillon, in a lengthening roll of dishonour. Three years ago Fillon was leadin...

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