Detailed risk prediction is needed to combat Covid-19
Actions around specifically identified groups at risk of contracting the disease need to be made if SA is to reopen successfully
After months of lockdown, SA faces the immense challenge of safely reopening for business and restoring other vital activities, including education and government services. We now know a lot about who is at risk of Covid-19 infection and which activities and behaviours, in which environmental settings, put individuals and others in danger.
While our knowledge is as yet incomplete, we can broadly predict who is more likely to become severely ill, require hospital care, or die despite accessing such care. We know most infections will occur in enclosed spaces, especially in the home, while shopping, dining, working and on public transport. We know it is unlikely that we will see infections from well-spaced outdoor activities, but we do need to be concerned about transmission from people who are asymptomatic or pre-symptomatic...