Turkey’s Erdoğan has his sights on Libya, pandemic or not

If it looks like nation-building, smells like nation-building...

A flurry of Turkish measures and announcements suggests that President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s ambitions in Libya are no longer restricted to protecting the government in Tripoli and enabling it to negotiate as equals with Khalifa Haftar, the rebel commander.

Turkish military support has allowed the forces of the Government of National Accord (GNA) to inflict reversals on Haftar’s Libyan National Army (LNA). But Turkey has rejected a ceasefire proposal from Egypt, the LNA’s main backer.

Haftar’s retreat towards his eastern redoubts has given Erdoğan foreign-policy bragging rights. More important, it allows Turkey room to expand its influence in Libya. While signaling its long-term commitment, Ankara is seeking political and military cover from Washington and Brussels, calling for a more active American and Nato role. But Erdoğan intends to call the shots.

There is no talk of withdrawing Turkish troops. On the contrary, Turkey’s footprint is likely to grow with plans to train GNA forces. Off the Libyan coast, too, Turkey is staging major naval exercises — even putting French noses out of joint.

Last week, senior Turkish officials — including foreign minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu, and treasury and finance minister Berat Albayrak — met prime minister Fayez al-Sarraj, who runs the GNA, to discuss more co-operation on security, investment, infrastructure and oil. Among other things, Turkish advisers are expected to help rebuild the Libyan banking system, Turkish companies will help in energy exploration, and Turkish ships will get Libyan oil to global markets.

Erdoğan’s Libya play always had a significant economic dimension. Turkish business ties to the North African nation predate the current civil war: in the final decade of Muammar Gaddafi’s dictatorship, Turkish construction companies were among the most important foreign businesses operating in the country.

More than 25,000 Turks were evacuated during the 2011 uprising against Gaddafi, and the companies left behind construction sites littered with heavy equipment. One motivating factor in Erdoğan’s backing of the GNA was the resumption of construction projects worth about $18bn.

Libya is also key to Turkey’s claims in the Eastern Mediterranean, where it hopes to become a significant energy player. Erdoğan says his maritime agreement with Sarraj’s government, contested by other littoral states, gives Turkey licence to explore in the waters between the two countries.

Challenge to the UAE

There are also political and strategic dimensions. Sarraj’s coalition government includes Islamists ideologically close to Erdoğan’s AK Party. And the success of the GNA would represent a Turkish victory over Haftar’s backers, including the United Arab Emirates, which Ankara views as a root cause of chaos and instability in the Middle East.

Turkey’s manoeuvres — military, political and economic — represent a challenge for the Emiratis and Egyptians, who must decide how to respond. Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah El-Sisi has indicated he will intervene militarily if the GNA moves to seize the strategic city of Sirte. Cairo is also rallying the Arab world against Turkish “interference” in Libya.

Erdoğan must also reckon with Haftar’s other important backer, Russia. Last week, a high-level Russian delegation, including foreign minister Sergei Lavrov and defence minister Sergei Shoigu, called off its visit to Istanbul at the last moment. Coming just days after a phone call between Erdoğan and President Vladimir Putin, this cancellation was a clear signal of dissatisfaction.

Erdoğan may be counting on US support — he has spoken of unspecified “agreements” with US President Donald Trump — to keep Haftar’s backers at bay. But he is asking a lot from a mercurial American president with little appetite for foreign adventure. More than likely, Trump will leave Turkey to fend for itself it Libya.

Can Erdoğan afford a deeper engagement in Libya? You’d think he has more than enough problems at home. Turkey’s coronavirus crisis continues: new cases have spiked since lockdown rules were eased. The full dimensions of the pandemic’s economic damage are still being measured.

Though the government says positive growth is possible this year, the median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists is a 3.6% contraction. A rebound in stocks — enabled by lower interest rates and measures to defend the lira — looks fragile.

Such conditions are hardly ideal for embarking on a nation-building project in a country as damaged as Libya. But Erdoğan doesn’t seem to be looking for an off-ramp.

Bloomberg