Voter apathy brings its own risks
Populism could rise in an attempt to appease the disaffected
While it is difficult to predict Wednesday’s voter turnout, the Centre for Risk Analysis has identified a downward trajectory in voter turnout since the first democratic elections in 1994. It follows that, based on 2014’s turnout of 73.7% of registered voters, a 71.9% voter turnout scenario is the most likely outcome. According to the centre’s polling data from April, the ANC may drop by more than 10 percentage points to 51% (its lowest result at national level), while the EFF is expected to rise from 6% to about 14% and the DA appears to have plateaued at about 24%. But the largest plurality remains nonvoters, who are set to increase and might outnumber ANC voters by a ratio of three to two. There are two bases from which national support can be calculated: total votes cast versus all citizens who could have voted. Calculated in terms of total votes cast, which determines National Assembly representation, the ANC has consistently had more than 60% support since 1994. However, cal...
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