The Good, the Bad or the Ugly? ANC conference is a reckoning, report says

The outcome of the ANC’s elective conference this weekend will determine SA’s trajectory for decades to come — stability and the reinforcement of constitutional democracy, or the onset of total economic collapse.

Those two scenarios are among three likely outcomes, according to a report compiled by The Brenthurst Foundation and the In Transformation Initiative, titled The Good, The Bad and The Ugly: Scenarios for South Africa.

As the ANC prepares to elect its leader for the next five years, the report considers the country’s economic position, political forces and the attitudes of SA voters and outlines four broad scenarios, dubbed The Good, The Bad, The Ugly, and Fistful of Cents.

“As the ANC prepares to elect its leader for the next five years, the country’s future is precariously in the balance,” the team of researchers said at the presentation of their findings on Tuesday. The teams were lead by Brenthurst Foundation director Greg Mills and Roelf Meyer, head the In Transformation Initiative.

“The ANC decision — to back President Cyril Ramaphosa or his rival Zweli Mkhize — will set the scene for the 2024 election which is likely to bring momentous change to politics,” the report reads. A coalition government is likely, ushering in a new era of multiparty contestation after three decades of one-party dominance, it adds.

That scenario sets the stage for SA either emerging stronger and recommitted to its constitutional order and economic advancement, or finding itself “on the path charted by Venezuela, Zimbabwe and others who have abandoned democracy for self-enrichment”.

The Good

This outcome sees those who support constitutionalism, the rule of law and reforms aimed at spurring on economic growth putting aside their differences and building a powerful new reform movement at the centre of SA politics.

“In this scenario, SA is proudly a constitutional democracy and seeks to build relations with others who share the same values on the world stage. This approach could be taken by a coalition of opposition parties with or without the ANC or by ANC reformers if they are able to take full control of the party and act decisively,” the report says.

The Bad

As for The Bad, the research team concludes: “The ANC’s Radical Economic Transformation wing wins the internal battle for power, leading to the ANC’s electoral support dropping far below 50% in the 2024 election.”

That outcome could lead to a coalition between the ANC and EFF, who are aligned with the RET faction on policy, resulting in “a rapid and precipitous decline in the country’s finances as nationalisation is implemented and the prosecution of party bosses for corruption ceases”.

In this scenario “malign actors such as Russia entrench themselves within government and the country abandons its constitution and democratic values. Investors will flee, sending the currency into free fall and causing hyperinflation, leading to economic collapse”, the report adds.

The Ugly

The Ugly scenario represents a continuation of the status quo: the ANC remains divided and unable to chart a clear path to reform and the rule of law, according to the report.

“The energy crisis continues to accelerate, and the economy continues on a path of anaemic economic growth and joblessness continues to rise. Investment continues to underperform and government remains wary of the private sector.”

The report also offers a variation to the Ugly scenario — Fistful of Cents — in which cronyism rises as extraction by the elite accelerates while the state loses its attempt to rein in corruption and graft. “The result is greater inequality and joblessness while the elite thrives by extracting rents, legal and illegal, from a sliding economy,” the report says.

Time to choose

The team said their research was aimed at answering the pressing questions that all South Africans are asking ask as the country encounters a growing economic and political storm.

“The country’s political leadership is in turmoil. President Cyril Ramaphosa, once believed to be the man to finally lead SA out of the darkness of state capture, corruption and economic failure, has struggled to turn things around and now finds himself battling to put the Phala Phala scandal in clear perspective,” they add.

Moreover, the country is “woefully failing to create jobs” and the majority of young people have no future in the world of work, while load-shedding is at its worst ever.

“All of this has created a climate of uncertainty. Where is the country going? Is the economy doomed to failure as Eskom switches off the lights? What will happen if Ramaphosa is charged in court or defeated at the ANC’s conference in December? What will happen if the 2024 election fails to produce an outright winner?”

According to Mills: “It has been a cliché to say that our country is on the edge of a precipice. This time, it’s real. The decisions taken over the next two years — by political parties, by voters and by political leaders — will shape our trajectory for decades to come.

Meyer adds: “During the late 1980s Clem Sunter through his ‘High Road Low Road’ scenario influenced many like me to engage on a path of change. Fortunately we listened and implemented the required change that had put SA on the high road for the next fifteen years.

“Now it’s time for the same. SA politicians and voters will have to apply their minds and make choices from now through to 2024 that will determine the longer-term outcomes. Hopefully this presentation will help with those choices.”