Reality may have finally caught up with the rand, which slumped almost 6% last week — its biggest weekly drop since the early days of the Covid-19 pandemic — but betting against it could be an expensive mistake, analysts warn.

The slump threatens the rand’s status as a surprise winner in 2022 as higher commodity prices shielded it from a sell-off in emerging markets, which have taken a hit from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and prospects of faster interest rate hikes in developed markets...