How a US-China trade deal could benefit SA
Dwindling tariff and recession fears until the 2020 US elections should lead to some restocking effect and investment growth by the first quarter, analysts say
Africa is poised to become the “land of opportunity” for bond and equity investors should the US and China strike a trade deal, Bank of America (BofA) says.
“At a minimum, we think the removal of tariff and recession fears at least until the November 2020 US elections should lead to some restocking effect and green shoots by the first quarter,” BofA strategists David Hauner and Claudio Irigoyen said in a client note.
Among the main emerging-market beneficiaries would be “some of the less-loved currency and high-yield markets, the African ‘China plays’,” they said.
While many investors remain sceptical about the successful conclusion of the current round of trade talks, an agreement will become more likely as the US presidential election campaign approaches, Hauner and Irigoyen wrote.
President Cyril Ramaphosa said on Wednesday that a deal between the world’s two biggest economies would greatly benefit SA.
A trade pact would reduce the risk of a strengthening dollar, supporting emerging-market currencies and high-yield debt. Some currencies, including the rand, would also benefit from equity inflows given that stocks are the asset class most likely to profit from an economic rebound, the strategists wrote.
“We also like Africa, where several external credits have lagged amid the global growth concerns: Kenya, Nigeria and SA,” they said.
In SA, local-currency bonds also provide an opportunity after being dragged down by concern over a rating downgrade by Moody’s Investors Service that they say has been fully priced in.