Finance minister Enoch Godongwana’s medium-term budget policy statement has set the scene for a two-to-three- year rally in SA bonds, which could enjoy additional impetus from a potential end to the current cycle of global monetary tightening as soon as mid-2023.

That’s the view of two of SA’s most prominent asset managers — Ninety One and Momentum Metropolitan — who both say a likely recovery in the SA bond market in 2023, coupled with a possible pivot from the US Federal Reserve, could potentially set the scene for foreign investors to return to local government debt. That would snap almost five successive years of net sales of local bonds by offshore investors, which Bloomberg data shows totalled a staggering R396.83bn...

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