EDITORIAL: Picture of party support raises questions for voters
An opinion poll by the Institute of Race Relations raises interesting points of political debate for voters
In a market where there is a famine of political research but a feast of learned opinions, the latest opinion poll by the Institute of Race Relations (IRR) is welcome. While opinion polls around the globe have gotten some big things famously wrong before, the IRR poll is transparent in its methodology and pragmatic in its modelling. While polls are the most valuable to political parties as they help to effectively direct their messaging, this poll also raises some interesting points of political debate for voters in general. The snap poll results showed the ANC at 56%, the DA on 18% and the EFF on 11%. When modelled according to various turnout scenarios, on a 69% turnout — which is considered likely compared with previous elections — the ANC moves to 59%, the DA to 22% and the movement in the EFF’s support is negligible. Gauteng is the only province where a coalition could be in the offing with the ANC on 48%, the DA on 25% and the EFF on 12%. When the likely turnout is factored in...
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