Economists have revised their growth forecasts upwards since Cyril Ramaphosa prevailed in the ANC’s presidential race, and the prospect of him becoming president of SA can only add "upside risk", as they say, to those forecasts. But, as Citi economist Gina Schoeman put it last week, while it’s easy to get a 2% in front of the growth rate, getting 3% will be a lot harder. That’s because while the Ramaphosa rally in confidence could drive a cyclical upturn in the economy, there is still no structural underpin for higher growth rates. Not that the growth rates economists currently have in mind are all that high. Schoeman has lifted her forecast for 2017 to 1.5%, up from 1.1% in December and 2018’s growth is seen edging up to 1.9% and rising to 2.2% in 2020. Some economists have pencilled in lower growth rates; some are more optimistic. That’s better than SA has seen over the past three years, during which growth has averaged no more than 0.8%, which is way below the population growth r...
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